AFCON Futures - Sunday 12/12/25
- Neil Mac
- Dec 19, 2025
- 3 min read
AFCON starts this Sunday and I have identified a few different angles to attack below
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AFCON Outrights
Ivory Coast +1200 - 20*
Mali at +2000 10*
Ivory Coast to reach the quarter-finals at -125 - 50*
Ivory Coast arrive with the third most valuable squad in the tournament, a clear indicator of depth and overall quality compared to much of the field.
Their pedigree at AFCON is strong. Since the turn of the millennium, they have won the competition twice and finished runners-up on two further occasions, consistently going deep into the knockout stages.
Recent form is extremely encouraging. Across both AFCON qualifiers and CAF World Cup qualifying, Ivory Coast posted the best underlying xG numbers in their groups, backed up by equally impressive defensive metrics. They are creating chances at a high rate while limiting opponents effectively.
From a draw perspective, I have them meeting Egypt in the quarter-finals, which would give Ivory Coast a realistic path through to the semi-finals. Egypt, and Mohamed Salah in particular, are not the force they once were, and that decline is reflected in the market.
To qualify treble:
Burkina Faso, Gabon, DR Congo, and Mali at +160
With four of the best third-placed teams also qualifying from the group stage, this market offers more margin for error than it first appears.
Burkina Faso sit in a group with Algeria, but this is a familiar setup for them. They tend to struggle against Africa’s elite while dominating the weaker sides. With Equatorial Guinea and Sudan also in the group, it is hard to see a scenario where Burkina Faso fail to qualify in some form.
Mali are a team I strongly fancy to make a deep run. Perennial dark horses at AFCON, this could finally be the year things click. They are grouped with hosts Morocco, but a second-place finish ahead of Zambia and Comoros looks very likely. On paper, Mali should be taking six points from the group stage without major issues.
DR Congo look well placed for a second-place finish unless Benin or Botswana spring a surprise. Much of the squad that reached the semi-finals last time is still intact, so another solid tournament performance is expected.
Gabon are the biggest-priced team in this group of selections. I expect them to take an easy three points against Mozambique, and it would not be a surprise to see them take something from Cameroon, who are once again dealing with a chaotic build-up. Gabon ranked eighth for xGD per 90 in qualification, with numbers comparable to Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso, and they also recorded the fifth-best goalscoring record in CAF World Cup qualifying.
Top Goalscorer
Sadio Mané at +2000 - 10*
Mané is clearly no longer at his absolute peak, but his output for Senegal remains strong. He has averaged around 0.45 goals per 90 minutes at international level and will again be the designated penalty taker, which is a major boost in this market.
He comes into the tournament with confidence after scoring a hat-trick in his last appearance for the national team. There are also signs of an uptick domestically, with Mané enjoying a slightly better season with Al Nassr compared to last term.
Recent AFCON history suggests this is a very achievable target. With the exception of 2021, the top goalscorer has typically needed only three to five goals to win the award, well within reach for Mané if Senegal progress as expected.
Senegal should go deep in the competition and also benefit from a kind group-stage setup, with two very weak sides in Benin and Botswana offering clear opportunities to build early goal numbers.
From a data perspective, Mané continues to profile well. In World Cup qualifying he ranked fourth overall for player xG, scoring five goals, and he was also third for shots per 90 during AFCON qualification.
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