Bills vs Broncos Free Pick, NFL Free Pick & Predictions 1/17/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- 16 hours ago
- 2 min read
Vegas didn’t move this total for fun—money talks, and it’s whispering ‘Under.
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
🏈 Why Bills vs. Broncos Will Go Under
Let’s talk Bills-Broncos and why the smartest number on the board isn’t sexy, isn’t flashy, and won’t make your group chat cheer—but it will cash: the Under. This matchup screams defensive trench warfare, because Denver at home this season has been an absolute nightmare, ranking top-five in defensive DVOA and top-three in points allowed, generating elite pressure without blitzing, which is the fastest way to turn Josh Allen into Captain Checkdown. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense quietly finished the season top-two against the run, allowing barely 91 yards per game, which means Denver’s offense is about to ask a near rookie quarterback to win a playoff game at altitude against a veteran secondary—good luck with that. Add in Mile High air, playoff nerves, and a total that’s already been nudged down by sharp money from the 46 range, and this sets up as a slow, physical, field-position slugfest where every drive feels like it’s moving through wet cement. This isn’t Madden, this is January football—points get expensive, mistakes get magnified, and coaches get conservative. If you’re betting the Over here, you’re betting on perfection against two defenses built to destroy it. Professionals don’t bet vibes, they bet matchups—and this matchup says points are at a premium. Sometimes the sharpest play isn’t the loud one… it’s the one that quietly takes your money and walks out the back door.
💰 Under 46.5 Total Points
I’m not guessing here—Under 46.5 is where the professionals landed.
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