Chiefs vs Broncos Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 1/5/25

Kansas City vs. Denver (-11 40.5)

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Kansas City vs. Denver - Sunday, January 5, 2025

Kansas City will travel to Mile High Stadium in Denver this weekend for a regular-season finale against the Broncos. While the Kansas City Chiefs already have the No. 1 seed locked in place in the AFC, the Broncos are desperate for a win to help them lock in the final wildcard spot in the AFC. There are a couple of different ways that Denver can secure their place in the postseason. The first way is simple; if Denver wins, they get the final wildcard spot in the AFC and don't have to rely on any other teams winning. The second way Denver can make it is if the Dolphins and Bengals lose.

But a Denver loss and Miami win means that the Dolphins take that final wildcard spot. If Miami and Denver both leave week 18 with a loss, then the Cincinnati Bengals can sneak into the postseason with a win against the Steelers on Saturday. The simplest way to put it for Denver is: win, and you're in; lose, and you're probably not. Thankfully, they should have a good shot this weekend, as the Chiefs are expected to sit their key players.

The Broncos have lost both of their chances to clinch an AFC playoff spot in their past two games, losing back-to-back one-possession games to the Los Angeles Chargers and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos allowed an average of 32 points in those two losses, and will need to get back on track this weekend at home. The Denver defense has allowed just 19.4 points per game this season, fifth best in the NFL, and they allow just five yards per play, the second best in the NFL.

Their run defense has been exceptional, allowing just 100.8 yards per game, which is the eighth-best in the league, and just .6 rushing touchdowns per game, which is the fifth-best in the NFL. With Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco likely out with a rib injury, and Kareem Hunt expected to rest this weekend, the Broncos run defense should shine against the Chief's backups.

Carson Wentz will get the start for the Chiefs in week 18 while Mahomes rests in preparation for the playoffs, meaning we can expect this Kansas City offense to lack some of its usual versatility. The Chiefs rank eleventh in points per game this season at 24.1 and thirteenth in yards per game at 342. A decline in these numbers would be no surprise with their usual playmakers out, but that doesn't mean the Chiefs can't win- especially with their stellar defense and Andy Reid still calling the shots.

Kansas City allows just 18 points per game, which is the second-best in the NFL, and allows just 310.8 yards per game, which is the fourth-best in the NFL. They also allow just two touchdowns per game to opposing offenses, which is the second-best in the NFL in that category. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix will need to utilize his arm as much as he can because the Chief's run defense hasn't allowed much this season. They allow just 98.3 rushing yards per game, fourth best in the NFL, and just 4.2 yards per rush.

The Broncos open up as a huge ten-point favorite at home, and, as long as they can limit mistakes, they have a great shot at making the postseason.

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Chiefs +11