Cowboys vs Lions Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/4/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- Dec 4
- 4 min read
DALLAS @ DETROIT (DET -3, 54.5)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
COWBOYS @ LIONS 12/4/25
As the Lions get ready to meet the Dallas Cowboys at Ford Field tonight, there is a postseason vibe in the air. When kickoff time comes, there is a mix of excitement and dread surrounding the second straight weekday game for two clubs on the fringes of the NFL playoff picture.
"You can't worry about the other teams that are out there, the other teams that are in front of you or what it looks like in the NFC. Just can't," Dan Campbell, the Lions coach, said. "And it doesn't matter. And shoot you win out, you might not get in. You don't know. Maybe it only takes 11 (wins) to get in. I don't know. But I know this: we've got to win this one."
Dallas is also in a must-win situation, despite having won three straight games to reach 6-5-1. After victories over the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders, the Cowboys defeated the Chiefs on Thanksgiving Day.
"It's a lot of good momentum, but it doesn't mean nothing if we don't go out and handle business," defensive lineman Kenny Clark remarked on the Cowboys' charge in the second half. "We gotta wash all that away, what we did. It's week-to-week, and we got to just keep on proving ourselves, and getting ourselves out of the hole."
After dropping three of its previous five games, including a crucial 31-24 home loss to NFC North rival Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day, Detroit (7-5) finds itself in this situation. The Lions haven't lost back-to-back games since October 2022.
That status of top wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown may not be determined until game day. When an offensive lineman rolled up on Brown's leg during the first quarter against the Packers, Brown sprained his ankle. This season, Brown leads the club with 75 receptions, 884 yards, and nine touchdowns.
The Cowboys' formidable passing attack makes Brown's availability potentially vital. Jordan Love, the quarterback for the Pacers, scored four touchdown passes against Detroit's injured secondary. The Lions' situation is made worse by the placement of cornerback Terrion Arnold on injured reserve and the continued absence of ballhawking safety Kerby Joseph due to a knee injury.
During the team's current three-game winning streak, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has thrown eight touchdown passes and is averaging 314 passing yards. Defensive coordinators are suffering greatly from the pick-your-poison combination of receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Together, they hauled in 13 receptions, 200 yards, and a touchdown as Dallas defeated Kansas City 31-28 on Thanksgiving Day. Additionally, Next Gen Stats shows that the Lions are the team that gives quarterbacks the longest time to throw (2.99 seconds).
Due to the recent double and triple teaming of defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard has had to adjust his pass-rush strategies. Opposing quarterbacks have had 600 passing yards and seven touchdown passes in the last two games.
There is an additional factor to Thursday's game since last season, the Lions humiliated the Cowboys, 47-9, on Dallas' home turf. In 2023, Lamb caught 13 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown against the Lions.
Starting offensive tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell did not practice on Tuesday for Detroit. Both are battling shoulder injuries. The Cowboys' practice on Tuesday was missed by defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (hamstring) and offensive tackle Tyler Guyton (ankle). Clowney's gameday status will depend on his ability to stretch out completely without experiencing any pain during Thursday's warmup, according to Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer. Against Kansas City, he recorded two sacks.
Due to the tiebreaker criteria, Thursday is even more crucial because Dallas is 3-4-1 and the Lions are 4-4 in conference games. The NFC's wild-card entrants may be decided by a head-to-head tiebreaker. While Detroit defeated the Buccaneers (7-5) and lost to the Eagles and split two games against Green Bay, Dallas has already suffered losses to the Panthers (7-6) and Bears (9-3).
Since Week 5, the Lions have alternated between victories and defeats. Chicago and the Los Angeles Rams (9-3), who are presently fighting for the NFC's top seed, are Detroit's remaining regular-season opponents.
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JARED GOFF OVER 1.5 PASSING TDS / DAK PRESCOTT OVER 1.5 PASSING TDS PARLAY
Both these pass defenses are sketchy. The Cowboys rank 30th in pass defense and they also rank dead last in the NFL in TD passes allowed per game (2.3). The Lions aren’t much better. The only team to give up more passing TDs to WRs than Detroit is Dallas. Goff has thrown for at least 2 TDs in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of 12 on the season. Prescott has at least two scoring tosses in 3 straight games and 8 of 12 for the season. Playing either of these guys individually will get you odds around -190 to -200, but parlay them and you’ll get odds around +105.
