DOLPHINS VS SEAHAWKS FREE PICK, NFL FREE PICKS, NFL PREDICTION 9/22/24

Miami Dolphins vs Seattle Seahawks (SEA -4.5, 41.5)

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DOLPHINS VS SEAHAWKS FREE PICK, NFL FREE PICKS, NFL PREDICTION 9/22/24

Miami Dolphins vs Seattle Seahawks

 The Miami Dolphins have dealt with a turbulent start to their season so far, now without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for at least the next four games. Tua’s scary concussion on Thursday Night Football against Buffalo raised questions about retirement, and while he doesn’t intend to hang up his cleats, Tua still won’t be available now for several weeks, and arguably a lot longer depending on expert advice.

That means his backup Skylar Thompson will start, with Miami also signing Tyler Huntley as a support option. Skylar has had his moments when brought into play, but overall feels like a hefty step down from Tua. Miami are a 4.5 point underdog on the west coast visit, largely due to the uncertainty of their offense with a relatively unknown quarterback taking the lead role.

The Dolphins are yet to cover the spread so far this season, leaving it late to force a comeback win over Jacksonville in Week 1, and then crumbling against Buffalo on primetime even before Tua went down.

Their offense has not yet proven itself the same threat it was in 2023, so far averaging 15 points per game (27th), with mediocre numbers in completion percentage, redzone scoring and rushing yards per play.

The defense has been taking shape under Anthony Weaver, and kept Miami alive in that Week 1 comeback. Miami are 4th in the average total yards allowed (257), and 7th in third down conversion percentage allowed (26%).

Seattle are 2-0 on the season, toughing out an overtime win against the New England Patriots in Week 2. Jaxon Smith Njigba is quickly emerging as a key threat for the new look offense, which is a major indicator of the switch from Shane Waldron to Ryan Grubb. The former Washington Huskies coach has implemented a spread offense, and JSN is going to feast this season because of it.

The Seahawks may still be without Kenneth Walker III this weekend, who missed the Week 2 game and is yet to practice because of an oblique injury. This game may come down to Seattle's pass game versus the Miami Dolphins secondary, which has a chance to make a statement by putting the team on its back when they need it the most.

Ryan Grubbs' Seattle offense is 9th in points per game (24.5), and ranks in the top third in several other categories. They’re going to lean further into the pass game, currently 4th in completion percentage (74%), and 6th in passing yards per game (235). The question is whether Miami can contain it, and with a backup quarterback starting, they might have to be out on the field a little more than they’d like in Seattle.

Miami may surprise many offensively though. They still have several of the most explosive playmakers in football at their disposal, they just need to scheme them correctly to allow Skylar Thompson to make plays. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could change any game, and running back DeVon Achane has already proven his progression heading into year two in Miami.

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