Falcons vs Broncos Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 11/17/24

Falcons vs Broncos ( DEN -2, 44.5)

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Falcons vs Broncos Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 11/17/24

Atlanta vs. Denver | Sunday, November 17, 2024

The early slate this Sunday includes an intriguing inter-conference clash between two teams looking to recover from very different stinging losses last week. The Falcons suffered a nail-biting 20-17 road loss to their eternal rivals, the New Orleans Saints, in a game where usually reliable kicker Younghoe Koo missed three field goals.

However, their Week 11 opponents saw themselves losing a divisional clash in even more heartbreaking fashion. The Denver Broncos became the latest side to fall to the unconvincing, yet still 9-0 Chiefs, with a potential game-winning 35-yard Wil Lutz field goal being blocked as time expired, allowing KC to escape with yet another narrow victory.

Denver has now lost two straight, but they sit at 5-5 and are very much still in the AFC playoff picture. This is largely due to their excellent defense, coordinated by Vance Joseph, which sits 4th in the league in points allowed at just 17.7 points per game. This defense has been marked by a willingness to blitz more than average, with the team blitzing on 35.8% of dropbacks, which has led to 35 sacks on the year. Both of these numbers rank second in the NFL and highlight just how often they try to get to the quarterback, and how effective they have been in doing so.

The team has shared these sacks around the defense, with four different men – Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen, and John Franklin-Myers – all racking up at least five each. But this defense is also excellent in coverage, as shown by the team ranking 4th in Net Yards per Attempt with just 5.3.

On offense, Denver hasn’t been as impressive, as Bo Nix finds his feet in the NFL for the first time. Nix’s passer rating of 82.9 is one of the league’s poorest as a starter, but he’ll be looking to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks 24th in passing yards given up and has allowed at least twenty points in all but one game this year.

Atlanta has been up and down this year but still sits atop the NFC South at 6-4 and looks good for a first playoff berth and winning season since 2017. Despite the loss to the Saints, the Falcons still have a fairly straightforward schedule from here, with their remaining opponents having a win percentage of .478, the 23rd easiest remaining in the league.

This should be a tight one, and it could well be settled by how well Atlanta’s 5th-ranked passing offense can match up against this impressive Denver defense. Kirk Cousins has been one of the league’s most prolific passers this year with 2,634 yards through the air, and his connections with Drake London and Darnell Mooney will be key for Raheem Morris’ men as they look to rebound in the Mile High City.

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