Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 5/13/25
- Luke Shuey
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
NBA: Evan Mobley (Cavaliers) OVER 10.5 Rebounds
Good morning, #PropNation!! Back-to-back days we’ve gone 2-1 on free plays. Let’s keep up that momentum and maybe even 3-0 sweep for the community!! We’ve got a free play in each NBA game and one MLB spot that I love. We start out in Cleveland where the Cavaliers are trying to fight off elimination. I am on a rebounds line for Evan Mobley who has not had the type of rebounding postseason you’d imagine for the defensive player of the year. Mobley has gone over 10 rebounds only ONCE in his last 8 games, but books increase his line to O/U 10.5 from a steady 9.5 for most of the playoffs. This increase signals an expected dominant game from Cleveland defensively, causing tons of misses by Indiana, and increased rebounding opportunities. Notably, the Cavs have out-rebounded Indiana in this series despite being down 3-1, and I think that trend continues significantly tonight. Strus isn’t going to continue rebounding at an outlier rate of 7 per game and Donovan Mitchell may not play tonight. Everything has the makings for a big Mobley performance. Lock in Evan Mobley OVER 10.5 Rebounds for the first winner!!
NBA: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) OVER 27.5 Points
To the West we go and I think the Thunder take the series lead against the Nuggets tonight, but I believe Nikola Jokic is going to feast and shoot a ton tonight. He’s been held extremely down statistically this series outside of his historic Game 1 performance. We knew OKC’s defense was LEGIT, but they’ve defended him incredibly well. They’ve held Jokic to shooting 20% below his season FG% and 20% below his season 3PT %. That trend simply cannot continue for too long. He’s due to break out of this and dominate possession. He can manhandle Holmgren and Hartenstein when he gets good positioning. Jokic’s assists are way down because guys aren’t hitting open shots so I think in a pivotal game tonight he shoulders more of the offensive burden. This should be a 32-36+ point evening for the 3-time MVP. Again, I expect OKC to win outright but Jokic will show up in a big spot. Take Nikola Jokic OVER 27.5 Points!
MLB: Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, & RBIs
For the third and final free play value spot I look to one of the hottest hitters in baseball and an incredible value spot: Gunnar Henderson. He’s gotten a hit in 14 of his last 15 games so we can expect at least one hit today. On top of that, the Orioles are favored to win the game with 9+ expected runs in the game. There are great odds that Henderson is involved by scoring a run or contributing an RBI if Baltimore puts up 5+ runs. He has minimal career at-bats against Woods-Richardson, but the Orioles just faced him last week so I love the familiarity aspect here. To get Gunnar’s line around even money today for the combo stat category is an absolute steal! Lock in Gunnar Henderson OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs and LET’S PRINT TICKETS!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
