Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 5/19/25
- Luke Shuey
- May 19, 2025
- 3 min read
Quinn Priester (Brewers) OVER 3.5 K's
Good morning, #PropNation!! Yesterday was a success in both free plays (2-1), VIP Card (+50*), and we hit our max play parlay along with Scottie Scheffler to win the PGA Championship at +425 odds. We use that as momentum to launch into this week. With no NBA games tonight I’m featuring a lot of MLB value for you guys. The first play I want you guys to take is Quinn Priester of the Brewers to go OVER 3.5 strikeouts. The 24-year old has struggled a bit in his 3rd major league season, but he’s looked good in his last two outings. Priester went 5 innings against both Cleveland and Houston, giving up 3 hits in each start and only 1 earned run in each game as well. Tonight, he’s facing the league’s most disappointing team thus far, the Baltimore Orioles. They just fired their manager and are 15-30 on the season, ranking 24th in strikeouts, whiffing 8.8 times per game. Priester has put up 4+ strikeouts in 3 of his 7 starts. This is a great matchup, at home, coming off his best two performances, against a strikeout-prone lineup. Lock in for the first dub and take Quinn Priester OVER 3.5 K’s!
Bryce Harper (Phillies) UNDER 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs
The next value spot I like is definitely a contrarian bet. I’m fading Bryce Harper tonight despite the Phillies being at Coors Field. Kyle Freeland takes the bump for Colorado and he’s been absolutely atrocious this year, going 0-6 with a 6.15 ERA. However, he’s been oddly stellar against left-handed hitters, allowing them to hit just .220 and striking out 9 times in 41 at-bats versus a .355 opponent batting average for right-handed hitters. Two other important factors here. In a large sample size of 28 at-bats, Harper is hitting just .185 against Freeland with 7 strikeouts in his career. Freeland has not been afraid to attack Harper and this should continue tonight. Lastly, oddsmakers are showing an expected UNDER tonight for total runs scored. Most games at Coors Field with good offenses have totals around 11, 12, or higher. Tonight, they post the line at 9.5 runs. Yes, Philadelphia will score some runs tonight but I look for Freeland to be successful against Harper and keep him in check. Take Bryce Harper UNDER 2.5 Hits, Runs, & RBIs!
Sonny Gray (Cardinals) UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
For the third and final free prop I’m going to back Sonny Gray of the Cardinals tonight who has big line functionality on him. The Cardinals are significantly favored against the best team in baseball, the Detroit Tigers, meaning they expect Gray to pitch well at home tonight. It’s a great bounceback spot after he got shelled at Philadelphia last time out, giving up 7 earned runs and 3 homers. Gray is going to get back to his quality stuff tonight against a lineup he’s comfortable with. Current Tigers hitters are a combined 11 of 62 (.177) against Gray with literally ZERO home runs and only 2 RBIs. Gray’s splits are also much better at Busch Stadium this season, where his ERA drops by over 3 points and opponents are only batting .231 against him. Look for Sonny to be locked in tonight and limit baserunners from the start. The best value play is hits allowed as my models project him for 4.5 tonight. His line is currently sitting at O/U 5.5 which is a bargain. Get this line before it gets juicy. Take Sonny Gray UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
