Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 4/30/25
- Luke Shuey
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
NBA: Brandin Podziemski (Warriors) UNDER 13.5 Points
Coming off a BIG Tuesday for free plays and VIP clients in both sports (NBA & MLB) we are carrying momentum into today! For the first value prop spot I want you guys to take Brandin Podziemski of the Warriors to go UNDER 13.5 Points. We rode his over 21.5 PRA line to an easy victory on Monday night in Game 4, but the script flips tonight in a must-win for Houston at home. I truly believe their young defense is about to get after Golden State and make it a tough game. Podziemski isn’t going to have two huge games in a row. Prior to Game 4 he was shooting just 25% from three this series and averaged 8 points/game. He should regress more towards those numbers tonight as Curry and Butler carry the load. There is no chance he gets another 18 shot attempts up tonight and it’s the perfect spot for a little zig zag. We cashed the over at home and now we fade the points total on the road. I love this angle: Lock in Brandin Podziemski UNDER 13.5 Points!
NBA: Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves) UNDER 15.5 Pts & Rebs
For the second NBA free prop I really like fading Rudy Gobert. He’s not having a good series and Coach Chris Finch has clearly shown that he doesn’t feel Gobert matches up well against the Lakers' smaller lineup. Gobert is playing 7 less minutes/game than he did in the regular season and he’s averaging an abysmal 3.5 points/game this series. He finally snagged 10 rebounds in Game 4 but tonight should be all about the Lake Show in a must win game at the Crypto.com Arena. I see a very small role for the Minnesota big man and potentially limited minutes again. The best way to take advantage is in the points & rebounds stat line, currently sitting at O/U 15.5. This series he’s averaging just 9.75 pts & rebs per game which is well below his season average and books are showing us they expect it to continue. Why would Minnesota play him more when the small ball is working? They won’t. Take Rudy Gobert UNDER 15.5 points & rebounds!
MLB: Trea Turner (Phillies) OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, & RBIs
We head over to Major League Baseball where the Phillies host the Nationals. Jake Irvin is on the bump for Washington and he’s had a really solid statistical start to his 2025 campaign. However, analytics are showing that might come to an end tonight and if Philly puts runs on the board early I’m confident Trea Turner will be involved. He’s 4 for 12 (.333) in his career against Irvin including a double and home run. Turner bats leadoff so if he gets on base the meat of the Phillies lineup should be able to get him in. Plus, Turner is seeing the ball really well, coming off a 4 for 4 game last night where he had 7 hits, runs, & RBIs. He’s on a 5-game hitting streak with 7 hits in his last 2 games alone. Lastly, his splits are actually incredibly meaningful so far this season. Turner has been really bad on the road, hitting just .211 compared to an outstanding .380 batting average at Citizens Bank Park. Tonight is a home game against a familiar pitcher and he’s hitting leadoff for a very talented lineup. GREAT value here. Take Trea Turner OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs & RBIs!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
