Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 11/15/24
- Luke Shuey
- Nov 15, 2024
- 3 min read
Terry Rozier (Heat) UNDER 25.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
Yet again a profitable day for VIP clients last night rolling into tonight as the Heat face the Pacers in the NBA Emirates Cup. I want you to take Terry Rozier of the Miami Heat to go UNDER 25.5 PRA. Rozier averages just 22.1 PRA on the season and usually when lines differ this much from the season averages I like to follow the line functionality and go over. But this one is an overpriced line for me so I’m doing the opposite. Despite playing a ton of minutes Rozier has gone under this line in 6 straight games and is only putting up 18.1 PRA in the month of November. Plus, it’s Group play for the tournament. These games matter a little more and I think you’ll see more defense in this one than Indiana normally plays. I mean look they just lost to Orlando 94-90 the other night. I just don’t see him lighting it up tonight with Tyler Herro dominating ball possession and Adebayo working down low. Lock in Rozier UNDER 25.5 PRA!
Santi Aldama (Grizzlies) UNDER 7.5 Rebounds
For free play #2 tonight I want you guys to take Santi Aldama of Memphis to go under 7.5 Rebounds. He averages 7.6 rebounds/game on the year but has gone under this number in 4 of his last 5 games. In just 4 less minutes/game last year he only put up 5.8 rebounds/game so his numbers should level out. And they are. My analytics have him projected for 6.5 rebounds, a full rebound below the line and I think this also has to do with matchups. Golden state often plays small ball and Aldama might not be picking up full minute share tonight. Lastly, he plays on the perimeter a ton, averaging 5 three point attempts/game so he’s not a big interior threat like some 7-footers are. Let’s take advantage on this value play and hammer Santi Aldama UNDER 7.5 Rebounds!
TJ Harden (UCLA) OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards
For the third and final free prop I want you to check out the college football slate and take TJ Harden of UCLA to go Over 45.5 Rushing Yards! TJ Harden and the UCLA Bruins head to Washington to take on the Huskies! If you watched UCLA early in the season and haven’t seen them much since, you are probably very low on the Bruins. However, UCLA has played one of the tougher schedules in the country and have knocked off Rutgers, Nebraska, and Iowa in the last three games. Ethan Garbers is a big reason why this team is clicking and we think he will play well in this game. The play we really like tonight is TJ Harden Over 45.5 Rushing Yards. TJ has gone over this number in all four games where he got double digit carries. How can you not feed him the rock after rushing for 125 yards on 20 carries against a stout Iowa defense. Washington ranks as the 83rd best run defense in the country, allowing 163 rushing yards per game. The Huskies have the 4th best pass defense making TJ a prime candidate for an uptick in touches. Take TJ Harden Over 45.5 Rushing Yards!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
