Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 9/9/26
THE NFL IS BACK BABY!!! I like to always try and give back to the community so you'll find a full regular season prop breakdown for NFL Futures below. Pick your favorite takes and ride with me as we crush the 2026 Season! š š
QB Props
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) UNDER 3,774 Passing Yards (20*)
This is a durability/volume fade more than a talent fade. Lawrence proved he can lead the franchise last season but now everyone is TOO high on him, so I will sharply choose to fade the public hype. He has missed time in two of the last three seasons due to injury, and Jacksonville has increasingly incorporated his legs near the goal line. He did throw for 4,007 yards last year, but one projection model has his downside near 3,420, making 3,774 vulnerable if he misses even 1ā2 starts. The value is on the under here!
Tyler Shough (Saints) OVER 3,449 Passing Yards (20*)
Shough quietly averaged 216.7 passing yards per gameĀ as a rookie after taking over the starting job, which extrapolates to 3,684 yards over 17 games. And that was with a really slow start. He also completed 67.6% of his passes at 7.3 Y/A and now enters Year 2 as the unquestioned starter in Kellen Mooreās offense. He has huge WR talent in Chris Olave and just needs to get production from rookie 8th overall pick Jordyn Tyson out of Arizona State once he's back healthy. Simply maintaining his rookie efficiency clears this number - Take the over!
Dak Prescott OVER 27.5 Pass TDs (30*Ā @ +100)
Dak remains attached to one of the leagueās most pass-heavy environments. Regardless where you look for projections, most analytics have Prescott going for 4,000+ yards and 27-30 TDs. I believe touchdowns is the best value play at PLUS money when you're throwing the ball to CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. The Cowboys offensive identity and explosive receiving talent give him a legitimate 30+ touchdown ceiling. Lock it in!
Joe Burrow OVER 3,999.5 Passing Yards (40*)
When Burrow is healthy, 4,000 is closer to his baseline than his ceiling: he posted 4,611, 4,475 and 4,918 yardsĀ in his three most recent healthy seasons. Even after returning from last yearās toe injury, he threw for 1,620 yards over the final six weeks, 3rd-most in the NFL over that span. The offensive line has to protect him and that is a main focus in the Bengals locker room entering 2026. Cincinnati has one of the easier schedules in the NFL this season, opening the door for Joe Shiesty to feast!
Jordan Love OVER 3,549.5 Passing Yards (50* MAX BET)
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This is the year Matt LaFleur will RELEASE the young QB and open the playbook to new levels.Ā LoveĀ threw for 3,381 yards despite playing only 15 gamesĀ last season ā a 17-game pace of roughly 3,832. He also maintained an excellent 7.7 yards per attempt and a 101.2 passer rating. Something you may NOT know is that Jordan is #3 in the NFL in expected points added during his 3 years as a starter. The only two QBs ranked above him? Josh Allen & Brock Purdy. Now you add in the running back question marks with Josh Jacobs legal status and an injury-prone unproven MarShawn Lloyd. That forces LaFleur to rely on his QB. Lastly, the Packers are projected to face a lot of negative game scripts, meaning more passing situations more than Love has ever seen before. He already cleared 4,100 yards in his only 17-game season as Green Bayās starter, so his ceiling is WAY above the line here - massive value to the over!Ā
RB Props
Kenneth Walker III OVER 7.5 Rush TDs (20*)
Kansas City is an excellent landing spot for Walkerās touchdown upside. He scored 8+ rushing TDs in each of his first two NFL seasons, and current projections put him around 8.1 rushing scoresĀ as the Chiefsā lead back. A significantly better offensive utilization environment should create more goal-line opportunities than he saw in Seattle where he often gave up short yardage carries to his counterpart Zach Charbonnet.Ā He should be a major red zone feature with Andy Reid's creativity and keep in mind the Chiefs DO NOT run QB tush pushes after Patrick Mahomes got injured during one a couple of years ago: Advantage K9!
Jonathan Taylor UNDER 1,224.5 Rushing Yards (20*)
The market is asking JT to stay healthy and remain a true workhorse for virtually the entire season. While I love his smooth running style, he has missed games in three of the past four seasons, and running-back rushing-yard Unders inherently benefit from injury and workload volatility. This is no doubt a contrarian take, but the risk of him missing time gives me a presumed advantage to the public market - Take the under! Ā
Blake Corum OVER 674.5 Rushing Yards (30*)
Corum is one of my favorite looks this season from a fantasy football perspective and a prop betting market. He already cleared this line last year, rushing for 746 yards on only 145 carries last season, averaging an outstanding 5.1 yards per carryĀ while playing all 17 games. The Rams specifically describe their backfield as continuing the Williams/Corum rotation that helped produce the NFLās No. 7 rushing attack. From everything I've read and sources I've checked, there is an expected INCREASE in Corum's overall utilization! He's becoming an incredibly reliable backup to the versatile Kyren Williams. With potential risk of injury to Williams AND the Rams projected to have positive game scripts all season (playing with leads where running the ball is more likely), this is a smash spot for me. Lock it in! Ā
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 449.5 Receiving Yards (30*)
I can't pass this up for the top-rated fantasy RB in2026. Gibbs caught 77 passes for 616 yardsĀ last season, and over Detroitās final eight games he commanded nearly a 20% target shareĀ while averaging just under 50 receiving yards per game. If you haven't watched much Lions football to see how often they use Jahmyr in the passing game, box scores don't take long to show you. Gibbs had THREE games with 10+ receptions last season. He's a beast. With David Montgomery gone, Dan Campbell has explicitly called Gibbs the Lionsā new bell cow so his role will only grow!
Chase Brown OVER 849.5 Rushing Yards (50* MAX BET)
This line is completely mispriced and we're going to take advantage. Brown cleared this line comfortably last year with 1,019 rushing yards on 232 carries despite the Bengals going 6-11 and trailing almost all season. Now, he should feast on an easy opponent schedule and increased carry projections. I like Brown to be a massive threat this year! Cincinnati brought back essentially the same backfield, leaving Chase atop a depth chart of veteran 3rd down back Samaje Perine and developmental options. Figure this: he could lose nearly 170 yards from last season and still cash this number. We have a lot of wiggle room and potentially an early season max bet cash!
WR Props
Marvin Harrison Jr. OVER 5.5 Receiving TDs (10* @ +125)
Harrison has already demonstrated legitimate touchdown upside, scoring 8 times as a rookieĀ before injuries limited him to 12 games and four TDs last season. Through two seasons his 17-game average sits around 7 receiving touchdowns. Getting plus money on six touchdowns for Arizonaās premier boundary/red-zone receiver is attractive after seeing how much Arizona aired it out with Jacoby Brissett when he took over last year. Small play, but plus money action I couldn't pass up!
Jaxon Smith-Njigba UNDER 1,324.5 Receiving Yards (20*)
This is primarily a sell-high regression bet. JSN exploded for 1,793 yards and 15.1 yards per receptionĀ last year Plus, defenses now realize if they shut down JSN, Darnold could be in trouble forcing it to Shaheed, Kupp, and company. I really feel the departure of Kenneth Walker III and injury to Charbonnet will actually hurt JSN as play action offense shouldn't be as effective. Scared money don't make money and I'm on the stud receiver's under here!Ā
Matthew Golden OVER 649.5 Receiving Yards (30*)Ā
Goldenās rookie regular season was SUPER quiet, posting just 361 yards in 14 games, but there were signs of a late breakout: he erupted for 84 yards on four receptions in Green Bayās playoff game at Chicago. He now needs just 38.3 yards per game over 17 games. In an offense where Jordan Love has historically spread production across multiple receivers, a modest Year-2 target expansion can get Golden there with room to spare. The departure of Romeo Doubs also opens a huge opportunity share and I expect Matt LaFleur to feature Golden's ability with the ball. He's a speedy, high quality route runner that can hit across the middle or find a deep ball. He was on the field more than you would realize last season (54% of snaps) and that will only grow. Let's cash this one early!Ā
Jameson Williams OVER 924.5 Receiving Yards (30*) Ā
Williams finally converted his elite explosiveness into sustained production last season: 65 catches, 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns, good for a massive 17.2 yards per reception (3rd in the NFL). He can decline by nearly 200 yards and still cash this ticket. Detroit also lost Kalif Raymond, leaving even fewer reasons to expect Williamsā field-stretching role to shrink.Ā The Lions have a 3-headed monster on offense with Gibbs, St. Brown & Williams. Jameson can take the top off the defense and is the one I want to back here for best value.
Courtland Sutton OVER 699.5 Receiving Yards (40*)Ā
Even after Denver added Jaylen Waddle to their WR room this offseason, 700 yards is a substantial discount - The Prop Master LOVES a good sale! The books have this line mispriced. Sutton has produced 1,081 and 1,017 yardsĀ in his first two seasons with Bo Nix and averaged 129.5 targets over those seasons. Yes, I acknowledge that the addition of Waddle will steal target share, but DO NOT SLEEP on the chemistry Nix & Sutton have developed. The young QB trusts Sutton to go up and get any ball thrown his way. This is as close to max bet value as you'll find in an NFL props future. Even conservative 2026 projections place him around 835ā884 receiving yards, comfortably above this line.Ā SMASH SPOT!
Ladd McConkey OVER 72.5 Receptions (50* MAX BET)
If you guys have followed me, you know I'm high on Ladd! He's an underrated pass catcher and I love his route running. He is going to have a season in 2026! McConkey caught 82 balls as a rookieĀ before dipping to 66 in 16 games last season. But that dip was for a good reason: Keenan Allen came back to the Chargers last year to steal 81 catches as Herbert's veteran trust target. Allen has moved on from LA again and now McConkey is the 1/2 option at WR. Multiple 2026 models project a rebound, including roughly 80+ catches and 130+ targetsĀ in one model. While Quentin Johnston will be the deep threat outside the hashes, McConkey will rack up catches all season long moving the chains for the talented Justin Herbert. I couldn't like this play more!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA BasketballĀ on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
