Knicks vs Warriors Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/15/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- 23 hours ago
- 4 min read
NEW YORK @ GOLDEN STATE (GSW -7.5)
NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS
🏀 J.A. Cavalier says the New York Knicks Are Built to Cover the Spread Against Golden State
When betting NBA underdogs, the goal isn’t always to predict the outright winner—it’s to identify teams with the structure, discipline, and matchup profile to stay within the number. In this spot, the New York Knicks check every one of those boxes.
While Golden State remains elite at home, the current spread suggests a level of separation that simply doesn’t align with how this Knicks team is built or how they’ve performed all season under Tom Thibodeau. The market has reacted aggressively to recent news and scheduling dynamics, creating a classic buy-low opportunity on a team that thrives in adversity.
Let’s break down exactly why New York is well-positioned to cover the spread.
Tempo Control: The Knicks’ Biggest Weapon
Golden State wants chaos. They thrive in pace, ball movement, and early-clock three-point attempts, ranking first in the NBA in both three-pointers made (15.9) and attempted (44.2) per game. When the Warriors dictate tempo, they overwhelm opponents before defensive coverages can settle.
The Knicks, however, are one of the league’s best antidotes to that style.
New York is extremely comfortable dragging games into the half court, where possessions are slower, physical, and deliberate. By playing through Karl-Anthony Towns in the post and high post, the Knicks can force Golden State into defensive possessions that test discipline rather than athleticism.
While the Warriors rank 6th in half-court points allowed, that number can be misleading. Their defense is far more vulnerable against elite individual shot creators than against motion-heavy offenses. Towns’ ability to score with his back to the basket, face up, or step out to the perimeter prevents Golden State from hiding defenders or switching comfortably.
If New York limits transition opportunities—where Golden State gains 1.9 additional points per 100 possessions—they dramatically reduce the Warriors’ offensive ceiling. That alone keeps this game well within the number.
Defending Stephen Curry Without Overcommitting
Stopping Stephen Curry isn’t realistic. Disrupting his rhythm is.
Even without Josh Hart, the Knicks still possess multiple long, elite perimeter defenders capable of making Curry work for every touch. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges offer exactly what most teams lack: length, lateral quickness, and discipline off the ball.
This matters because Curry’s damage often comes not from isolation, but from relocation threes, handoffs, and defensive breakdowns after initial action. New York’s defensive structure—ranked 12th in scoring defense (114.9 PPG allowed)—is designed to limit those cascading mistakes.
Curry is also coming off a 2-for-9 shooting night against Portland, which may not mean much in isolation, but it does suggest he isn’t in an untouchable rhythm stretch. Against a Knicks defense that switches selectively and closes out with size, even a slight dip in efficiency is meaningful when covering a large spread.
The Karl-Anthony Towns Mismatch
This is the matchup that gives New York real offensive leverage.
Golden State ranks:
25th in effective field goal percentage allowed at the rim (68.4%)
25th in defending short mid-range attempts
Those are exactly the areas where Karl-Anthony Towns thrives.
Towns isn’t just a scorer—he’s a structural problem. His presence forces Golden State’s smaller frontcourt into impossible choices: stay home and allow him clean post looks, or send help and open cutting lanes and kick-outs.
That gravity creates secondary opportunities for players like Miles McBride and OG Anunoby, who benefit from defenders being pulled out of position. Even if Towns isn’t hyper-efficient, his mere involvement bends the Warriors’ defense in ways that reduce scoring droughts—another key factor in covering large spreads.
Market Overreaction and Line Value
This is where the bet becomes especially compelling.
The line movement from Knicks +3.5 to +7.5 represents a massive adjustment, driven largely by:
The absence of Jalen Brunson
The back-to-back scheduling factor
While Brunson is undeniably valuable, the market has likely overcorrected, assuming a near-total offensive collapse. That assumption doesn’t align with how New York has responded all season.
Miles McBride has quietly proven capable of handling increased responsibility, averaging 17.07 points + rebounds over his last 15 games. The Knicks don’t rely on a single offensive engine—they rely on physicality, execution, and depth.
Thibodeau-coached teams historically perform well in these “disrespected” spots, where expectations are low and defensive intensity becomes the equalizer. With the spread inflated, New York doesn’t need to be perfect—they just need to be themselves.
💰 FREE PICK: Knicks to Cover
This isn’t about betting against Golden State’s ceiling—it’s about betting on New York’s floor.
If the Knicks control tempo, limit transition opportunities, and leverage Towns’ matchup advantages, this game projects as competitive deep into the fourth quarter. With the current number, the value clearly sits on the underdog.
My Pick:New York Knicks +7.5 (-120)
