Lakers vs Mavericks Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/24/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- Jan 24
- 2 min read
NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS
Lakers vs Dallas Free Pick
The Los Angeles Lakers (26–17) head to Dallas tonight to take on the Mavericks (19–26) in a primetime Rivals Week matchup, and the analytics strongly favor the visitors given Dallas’ injury-decimated frontcourt. With multiple rotation bigs sidelined, the Mavericks project to lose significant efficiency in the areas that matter most against the Lakers: rim defense and defensive rebounding. On the season, Los Angeles owns a clear edge in net rating, driven by a top-tier paint scoring profile and a positive rebound differential, while Dallas’ defensive metrics drop sharply when forced into small-ball lineups. The Lakers generate a high percentage of their offense at the rim and at the free-throw line, and with Dallas lacking size, their expected points per possession in halfcourt sets rises materially. Add in LeBron James controlling tempo against a Mavericks team ranking below league average in defensive efficiency during non-transition possessions, and this matchup tilts heavily toward L.A. from both a matchup and numbers standpoint — talent, health, and efficiency all point in the same direction.
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FREE PICK Over 233.5
Lakers–Mavericks sets up perfectly for a shootout. Los Angeles brings a top-10 offense and elite rim finishing against a Dallas team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the league. Both defenses show clear weaknesses—especially the Lakers in transition, where Dallas excels—and neither side has shown the ability to consistently slow opponents down. With high tempo, heavy transition scoring this game profiles as a high-possession and high-scoring, making Over 235.5 the clear play.
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