Michigan State vs Oregon Free Picks, College Football Predictions 10/4/24

MICHIGAN STATE @ OREGON (ORE -23.5, 52)

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Michigan State vs Oregon Free Picks, College Football Predictions 10/4/24

SPARTANS @ DUCKS 10/4/24

While Oregon, ranked sixth, is new to the Big Ten, the Ducks are accustomed to facing Michigan State.

Tonight, the Spartans travel to Eugene, Oregon, to play the Ducks (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten). It’s Michigan State’s second straight game against a Top 10 opponent.

Last Saturday, Oregon played its most complete game of the year, defeating UCLA 34–13. Under the direction of former Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith, the Spartans (3-2, 1-1) look to recover from a 31-point defeat to Ohio State.

Smith is familiar with the thrill of defeating the highly regarded Ducks. Smith was the Pac-12 Coach of the Year with the Beavers in 2022. He masterminded the upset victory over then-No. 10 Oregon in the annual Civil War, winning 38–34. Oregon coach Dan Lanning noted that there are some parallels between the Spartans and previous Smith teams.

Oregon, which is going for its first Big Ten home victory, is making its first visit to Autzen Stadium since September 7. The Ducks are 42-3 at home since 2017 and opened as a 23.5-point favorite. Oregon is 6-0 when playing on Friday nights. It’s a quick turnaround, but Lanning has his team prepared.

Lanning is particularly happy with the linebacker group that helped keep UCLA from scoring an offensive touchdown. Oregon only allowed the Bruins to amass 172 yards of total offense.

After falling to No. 3 Ohio State 38-7, the Spartans will be attempting to win their first non-bowl regular-season game on the West Coast since defeating Cal 19-0 in October 1957. After five games, Michigan State's offensive performance has been lacking. With an average of 132.4 yards per game, the rushing offense is ranked 97th in the country. The Spartans offense is ranked 104th with 21.8 points per game. The Spartans also have 13 turnovers in five games, which is tied for the third most in the league.

After six seasons at Oregon State, Smith joined the Spartans in November of last year and referred to Friday's match as "a big-time challenge." He is aware of the offense and quarterback Dillon Gabriel of the Ducks. Smith knows Oregon can be explosive. He also declared that he will not let his trip back to Oregon change how he approaches the game on Friday.

The 2018 Red Box Bowl was Oregon and Michigan State's most recent meeting. Justin Herbert's touchdown pass to Dillon Mitchell in the fourth quarter gave the Ducks a 7-6 victory.

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COACH RICK FREE PICK:

FREE PICK: DILLON GABRIEL 275+ PASSING YARDS

Dillon Gabriel is fired up for his home matchup with MSU. Oregon head coach would love to make up for his embarrassing loss to then-Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, now the MSU head coach. I would expect he’ll let Gabriel loose. That means lots of balls in the air. Gabriel is averaging 298 passing yards per game. He’s cleared this number in three of four games already this season. Oregon’s passing game ranks in the Top 30 in the country and they are 15th in passing success rate. MSU struggled last week against the first elite offense its faced this season. They’ll get another heavy dose of offense from the Ducks.