NBA Free Picks, NBA Free Picks & Predictions 2/10/26
- J.A. Cavalier
- 2 hours ago
- 2 min read
NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS
Pacers vs Knicks Free Pick
FREE PICK UNDER 225.5
This is one of those totals that looks tempting until you actually read the room, because yes, the Knicks are top-three in offensive rating, but they play basketball like it’s a tax audit. They’re 24th in pace at 98.5 possessions, they grind you into dust in the halfcourt where they rank sixth in points per 100 plays, and Indiana? Indiana doesn’t have a pulse right now. No Haliburton, Nesmith and McConnell banged up, and this offense just scraped together 104 points against a Raptors defense that isn’t exactly Alcatraz. New York’s been clamping teams under 100 like it’s a hobby, and at the Garden they dictate tempo like a veteran boxer leaning on you in the clinch. This is a classic sharp correlation play: Knicks control the game, Knicks cover the number, and Indiana struggles to crack triple digits. Public sees the Knicks and thinks fireworks—pros see pace, injuries, and a total that’s a little too rich. Under 225.5, hold your nose, cash the ticket, and move on.
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Mavericks vs Suns Free Pick
FREE PICK UNDER 230.5
This is one of those totals where the models flirt with the Over, but the market reality screams Under 230.5, because Phoenix turns games into quicksand. Over their last ten home games, the Suns are playing at the third-slowest tempo in the league, forcing teams into half-court possessions where their defense ranks fifth overall, and that’s where points go to die. Now flip to Dallas, because this is where the Under really cashes: the Mavs are 27th in offensive rating, 28th in points per possession, and without Kyrie Irving this offense is basically Cooper Flagg trying to build IKEA furniture without instructions. If Klay Thompson sits or is limited, there’s no secondary scoring—just long possessions and bad late-clock shots. Phoenix allows only 111.4 points per game, fifth in the NBA, and they’re elite at killing transition by controlling the glass and forcing you to execute. This isn’t a track meet, it’s a half-court arm-wrestling match. Public sees a big number and thinks buckets—sharps see pace, injuries, and a Suns defense that strangles games in its sleep. Under 230.5 is the grown-man bet, and this one cashes quietly while Twitter chases ghosts
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