Pelicans vs Pacers Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/16/25

J.A. Cavalier
1 day ago
2 min read

“Not all bad teams are equal — and one of these teams forgets how to play basketball once it leaves the airport.”

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Pelicans vs Pacers Free Pick

Indiana Pacers -3.5, and this is what we call in the betting world a situational layup — and no, the Pelicans are not the team contesting it. You’ve got two bad records, but not all bad teams are created equal, and this is where sharp bettors separate from box-score tourists. Indiana has quietly shown signs of life lately, and the numbers back it up — a respected computer model gives the Pacers about a 61 percent win probability here, which is more than enough margin when we’re laying under four points at home. Meanwhile, New Orleans on the road has been an absolute disaster — three wins in fifteen road games — that’s not travel fatigue, that’s a personality trait. Defensively, this isn’t close either: Indiana sits around 18th in Defensive Rating, while the Pelicans are buried near the bottom at 27th, allowing over 122 points per game, which is basically handing out layup lines with complimentary Gatorade. They also rank 29th in effective field goal percentage allowed, meaning teams don’t just score — they score efficiently, comfortably, and with a smile. Indiana doesn’t need to be great here, they just need to be competent at home against a team that forgets how to play basketball once it leaves New Orleans. This is a classic buy-low, fade-the-road-dog spot, and if the Pacers don’t cover this number, Vegas deserves an apology letter. My pick: Indiana Pacers -3.5

My pick is simple — Indiana -3.5 — home court, defensive edge, easy decision.