Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/1/26
- rbowe7447
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
IOWA @ OREGON (IOWA -9.5, 142.5)
CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS
COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS
HAWKEYES @ DUCKS 2/1/26
Iowa enters this game as a strong favorite for several reasons. The Hawkeyes are 15-5 overall and have won three straight. Conversely, Oregon has been one of the worst teams in the country at covering the spread lately, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games and a dismal 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests.
The efficiency gap is the primary driver here. Iowa ranks 21st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Oregon’s offense has sputtered, ranking 195th in effective field goal percentage (50.7%). Iowa’s ability to protect the rim and force difficult shots should overwhelm an Oregon squad that has lost five straight games by an average margin of 14.4 points. With Bennett Stirtz (127.5 ORtg) leading a disciplined Iowa backcourt, the Hawkeyes are well-positioned to cover this mid-single-digit number.
This matchup features a significant clash in tempo that favors the Under. Iowa plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation, ranking 337th in adjusted tempo (64.2 possessions per game). Oregon isn't much faster, ranking 227th. When two teams that prefer a half-court game meet, the total often struggles to reach the mid-140s.
Recent trends heavily support a lower-scoring affair. Oregon has stayed Under the total in eight of their last 10 games, including four straight. Iowa has also trended toward the Under in high-stakes conference games, staying Under in two of their last three. Iowa’s defense is elite, allowing just 62.8 points per game (4th nationally), and they are particularly good at defending the three-point line (30.2 3PT FG% allowed). If Oregon continues to struggle with their shooting (33.5% from deep), this game will likely stay well below the 140-point mark.
Iowa is 14-1 as a favorite this season, while Oregon is 0-10 as an underdog. The Ducks simply haven't shown the ability to pull off upsets this year, especially in hostile environments. The one advantage they have in this one is playing at home.
The statistical mismatch in the paint is glaring. Iowa ranks 12th nationally in two-point field goal percentage (60.5%), led by the efficiency of Alvaro Folgueiras (66.7% 2PT) and Cam Manyawu (63.0% 2PT). Oregon’s defense allows opponents to shoot 50.0% inside the arc, and they lack the depth to contend with Iowa's frontcourt for 40 minutes. Don’t forget, Oregon is currently on a 0-5 slide and Iowa has won three straight..
Iowa ranks 6th nationally in defensive turnover percentage (22.9%). Oregon’s offense has been prone to mistakes, ranking 264th in turnover rate (18.7%). This disparity will likely lead to extra possessions and easy transition points for the Hawkeyes. Plus, Iowa ranks 12th in the nation in eFG% (58.4%). Oregon ranks 195th at 50.7%. That’s a tough gap to manage.
Throw in that Iowa is a top-25 free-throw shooting team (77.3%) and you can see why the Hawkeyes are favored. In a game that could be decided by late-game fouling, Iowa’s ability to convert at the line (led by Bennett Stirtz at 81.9%) provides a significant edge over Oregon’s 70.7% team average.
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FREE PICK: IOWA -9.5
Iowa is just head and shoulders better than Oregon. The one issue is the travel spot. Iowa just won three straight games, the last two of which were at home. The Hawkeyes are just 1-4 SU and ATS in true road games this season. They have yet to play out West and if you factor in their 3-0 SU & ATS record in neutral site games, playing away from home hasn’t been all that bad for Iowa. All of the metrics point to the Hawkeyes, especially defensively - 4th in the nation in scoring defense, 17th in Defensive Rating, 23rd in Net Rating. Then, factor in that the Ducks won’t have 3 of their top 4 scorers. The travel won’t stop Iowa from playing lockdown defense.
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