Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/2/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/2/26

ILLINOIS STATE vs. AUBURN (AUB -6.5, 149.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

REDBIRDS @ TIGERS 4/2/26

The NIT Semifinals at Hinkle Fieldhouse feature a fascinating clash of styles between the high-flying Auburn Tigers and the defensive-minded Illinois State Redbirds. Auburn enters as the more talented, SEC-tested squad, but Illinois State has proven to be a "giant killer" in this tournament with road wins over Wake Forest and Dayton.

Illinois State has made it to the semifinals by turning games into absolute grinds. They rank 222nd in adjusted tempo, preferring a slow, half-court style that limits possessions. Their defensive performance against Dayton was a masterclass, holding the Flyers to just 0.88 points per possession and a dismal 3-of-25 from beyond the arc.

Auburn, while typically a faster team, has seen the Under cash in four of their last five games. In this tournament, the Tigers have occasionally "played with their food," allowing inferior opponents to hang around by slowing the pace. Illinois State’s 12th-best defensive rebounding rate nationally will prevent Auburn from getting easy second-chance points, further suppressing the total.

While Auburn is the more talented team, they have been a nightmare for bettors lately. The Tigers are a staggering 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 14-22 ATS on the season. They have won their NIT games against South Alabama, Seattle, and Nevada, but failed to cover or look dominant in those contests, winning by 11, 6, and 6 points respectively.

Illinois State is a battle-tested underdog. They shoot 35.7% from deep and 47% from the field, which is enough to keep them within striking distance if Auburn continues their trend of letting teams stay close. The Redbirds are 19-15 ATS on the season and have shown they aren't scared of the big stage after taking down ACC and Atlantic 10 powerhouses. Illinois State is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games.

Despite their struggles to cover large spreads, the Tigers' talent gap is significant. Auburn played the 11th hardest Strength of Schedule (SOS) in the country, including 17 Quadrant 1 games. Illinois State, by comparison, has only played three Q1 games all year.

Auburn’s interior advantage is the deciding factor here. KeShawn Murphy (6.8 RPG) and the Tigers' frontcourt have been +29 in rebounding margin during this tournament. Illinois State is an undersized team that gives great effort on the glass, and Auburn’s ability to dominate the paint should ensure they advance to the championship, even if it isn't a blowout. Don’t forget, the Tigers are the 12th-ranked team in the country in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

The narrative tonight centers on Auburn's motivation versus Illinois State's momentum. Steven Pearl has kept the Tigers focused after missing the NCAA Tournament, but they haven't yet flexed their SEC muscles to put a team away early. Meanwhile, Illinois State is in its first NIT semifinal in school history and is playing with house money. Remember, the Redbirds won last year’s Crown tournament.

Watch for Kevin Overton to be a focal point for Auburn. He’s averaging 17.3 points over his last 10 games and is expected to bounce back after a quiet 7-point outing against Nevada. Tahaad Pettiford is the engine for the Tigers, averaging 15.3 points and 3.7 assists. If Illinois State can successfully limit Auburn's transition opportunities and force them into a half-court battle, this game will stay tight and low-scoring.

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FREE PICK: AUBURN ML/AUBURN TEAM TOTAL UNDER 84.5

There is no question Auburn is more talented. Illinois State is a very good basketball team though. They will try and grind this game to a halt. The Redbirds rank 261st in possessions per game and their defense is outstanding. They rank in the top-50 in points allowed per game (68.0) and have held their last 3 opponents to 55, 75, and 58. Still, Auburn turns the ball over less, is a way better offensive rebounding team, and they rank 4th in the nation in free throw rate. It helps that they shoot 75% from the line too. That said, we’ll stay away from the spread as Auburn has a horrible 14-22 ATS mark this season. The Tigers win the game, but the Illinois State defense comes through. Auburn has gone Under this team total in 8 of their last 10 and 15 of their last 20 games. You can get that parlay in the -115 to -120 range.

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