Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/12/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/12/26

MEMPHIS @ NORTH TEXAS (MEM -1.5, 138.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

TIGERS @ MEAN GREEN 2/12/26

The Memphis Tigers and North Texas Mean Green are set for a high-stakes American Athletic Conference showdown tonight. This matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions but separated by very little in the advanced metrics. Memphis enters the contest at 12-11 overall, coming off a two-game winning streak, while North Texas sits at 13-11 and is looking to build on a dominant 81-58 road win over UTSA.

While North Texas is known for a slower, defensive-minded pace (ranked 323rd in Adjusted Tempo), recent trends suggest the total might be set too low based on the current offensive efficiency of both squads. Memphis plays at a much faster clip (ranked 102nd in Adjusted Tempo) and has shown the ability to push the pace even against disciplined defenses. In their last 10 games, Memphis has maintained an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 106.1, while North Texas has seen a slight uptick in their offensive output, evidenced by their 81-point explosion in their most recent outing.

The statistical mismatch here lies in the Memphis offensive rebounding versus the North Texas defensive rebounding. Memphis ranks 39th nationally in Offensive Rebound percentage (36.4%), while North Texas struggles significantly on the defensive glass, ranking 306th (34.5% allowed). This suggests Memphis will earn numerous second-chance opportunities, which are critical for pushing a total Over. Furthermore, North Texas has a high Free Throw Rate (FTR) on offense (ranked 118th), and Memphis' defense tends to foul frequently (ranked 288th in FTR allowed). This should lead to a consistent clock-stopping parade to the free-throw line, which also helps pad the point total.

Expert analysis indicates that while these teams played a low-scoring 57-48 game earlier this season, both rosters have evolved. North Texas is coming off a game where they found their rhythm from deep, and Memphis has integrated key transfers like Aaron Bradshaw and Sincere Parker more effectively into their rotation. As a result, we’ve already seen the total move from 134.5 at opening to its current 137.5.

Memphis is currently the superior team according to both KenPom (92nd) and BartTorvik (85th), whereas North Texas lags behind at 149th and 164th, respectively. Memphis has a Net Rating of +8.06 compared to North Texas at +1.52. Despite being the road team, Memphis has faced a significantly tougher Strength of Schedule (ranked 83rd) than North Texas (ranked 153rd), meaning they are battle-tested against elite competition like Purdue and Louisville.

The Tigers' defense is their calling card, ranking 31st nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (98.5). They are particularly effective at defending the perimeter, holding opponents to just 30.6% from three-point range (57th in the country). This is a nightmare matchup for a North Texas offense that ranks 302nd in three-point percentage (30.6%). If North Texas cannot hit from deep, they lack the interior efficiency (292nd in 2P%) to keep up with a Memphis team that features the 7'1" Aaron Bradshaw, who is shooting 70.7% at the rim.

Memphis has won the last two matchups against North Texas, including that 57-48 victory on December 31st. North Texas is 9-4 at home, but they are just 5-6 ATS at the Super Pit this season. North Texas has also had a tough time when stepping up in class. The Mean Green is just 1-7 this season in Quadrant 1 and 2 games.

The point guard battle will be decisive. Memphis' Dug McDaniel is playing 85.7% of available minutes and leads the Tigers in scoring (13.2 ppg) and assists (4.7 apg). His ability to navigate the North Texas pressure (UNT ranks 11th in defensive TO%) will be the key. McDaniel is an 89.6% free-throw shooter, making him the ideal player to have the ball in his hands during the closing minutes of a tight road game.

Memphis holds a significant advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (108.9 vs. 99.3). In a game projected to be played at a slower tempo (64-66 possessions), the team with the higher points-per-possession ceiling usually prevails. Memphis' ability to generate extra possessions through offensive rebounding (36.4% OR%) provides a statistical cushion that North Texas simply does not have.

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FREE PICK: UNDER 138.5

The Super Pit is legit. It’s a tough place to play and despite North Texas not being the same North Texas of the last few years, the Mean Green will put up a fight. They are 9-4 SU at home this season (15-4 SU last 19) and that’s because North Texas allows just 66.2 ppg at the Super Pit. Seven of their 11 home games have gone Under the total. Memphis has been playing well as of late, winning 3 of their last 4. The Tigers calling card is defense. Memphis ranks 31st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Don’t forget the first game these two played this season. Memphis won 57-48. These two have played four times and only once have they combined for more than 132 points.

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