Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/13/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/13/26

UNLV @ BOISE STATE (BOISE -9.5, 156.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

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REBELS @ BRONCOS 2/13/26

The UNLV Runnin' Rebels (12-12, 7-6 MWC) head to ExtraMile Arena to take on the Boise State Broncos (15-9, 7-6 MWC) tonight. This is a critical Mountain West showdown between two teams tied in the conference standings. While UNLV won the first meeting 89-85 in overtime exactly one month ago, Boise State has been surging lately, winning six of its last seven games.

Boise State enters this matchup as a significant home favorite, and the statistical profile suggests they are well-positioned to cover. The Broncos have been elite at home, posting a 9-3 record at ExtraMile Arena. Their defensive efficiency is the primary differentiator here. Boise State ranks 47th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (101.1), while UNLV struggles at 127th (106.8).

The Broncos have covered the spread in four of their last five games as favorites. Boise State's offense has been "surging" lately, ranking among the top offenses in efficiency since mid-January. Conversely, UNLV has been highly inconsistent, and while they have won two straight, they previously suffered through a brutal four-game losing streak. Boise State's ability to control the glass (ranking 9th in total rebounds allowed) should limit UNLV's second-chance opportunities, which were vital in their previous overtime win.

The total for this game is set at 156.5, and recent trends heavily favor the Over. UNLV has seen the Over hit in 14 of their 23 games this season (60.9%), including 7 of their last 10 contests. Their defense has been a major liability, ranking 301st in points allowed per game (78.58). Boise State has also trended toward high-scoring affairs, with the Over hitting in 9 of their last 10 games.

The previous meeting between these two teams saw 174 total points scored in an overtime thriller. Both teams are currently playing at a high offensive level. Boise State just put up 91 points against New Mexico, while UNLV scored 82 in their last outing. With UNLV's fast tempo (26th nationally) and Boise State's recent offensive efficiency, the Over is worth considering.

The Broncos have won six of their last seven games, with their only loss in that span coming against a high-ranking Grand Canyon squad. Boise State is 11-3 as favorites this season and have a clear home-court advantage where they average 79 points per game.

UNLV's road performance has been middling at 4-4, and they have struggled as underdogs, going 5-7 in that role. News from the Broncos' camp indicates that Drew Fielder is playing at an elite level, averaging 13.5 points and 5.4 rebounds. In the last meeting, Fielder dropped 23 points on the Rebels. 

Kimani Hamilton has been a standout for the Rebels, coming off a 24-point, 10-rebound performance against San Jose State. For UNLV to keep this close, Hamilton must replicate that efficiency against a much tougher Boise State interior defense that ranks 15th in offensive rebounding percentage allowed.

UNLV wants to run, ranking 26th in Adjusted Tempo (72.0). Boise State prefers a more methodical approach, ranking 244th (66.6). The team that successfully dictates the pace in the first ten minutes will likely control the narrative of the game. Boise State's elite ball security (only 11.6 turnovers per game) makes it difficult for UNLV to generate the transition points they rely on.

Despite Boise State's overall efficiency, they have had some defensive issues since conference play started, specifically regarding rim protection. This could allow UNLV's Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn and Kimani Hamilton to find success driving to the basket, contributing to the high total points expectation.

Get free CBB Picks and CBB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 CBB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert CBB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the CBB betting community the best CBB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best CBB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: OVER 156.5

As Mountain West members, UNLV and Boise State play each other every season. In last year’s two games, the closing game totals were right around 140. This year’s first meeting featured a closing total of 149.5, almost 10 points higher than last year. The first game did go Over and not just because of overtime. The teams combined for 152 points in regulation and ended with 174. Now, we have an even higher total for tonight. Both teams have had their share of high-scoring games lately. UNLV’s defense (301st in points allowed) has seen the Over cash in 6 of its last 7 games. The Rebels allowed 86 points or more in their last three games. The Over has cashed in 9 straight for Boise, who has scored 81 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games.

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