Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/5/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/5/26

ST. FRANCIS (PA) @ MERCYHURST (MER -8.5, 136.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

RED FLASH @ LAKERS 2/5/26

The Saint Francis Red Flash (6-15) travel to the Mercyhurst Athletic Center to take on the Mercyhurst Lakers (11-12) this Thursday, February 5th. This Northeast Conference (NEC) matchup features two teams looking to find consistency as the season progresses. Mercyhurst enters as the favorite, backed by a significantly stronger defensive profile and home-court advantage.

Coach Rick actually has ties to both schools. He grew up just six miles from Loretto, PA, the home of the Red Flash and attended summer basketball camps there. While a high school head football coach in PA, Coach Rick would travel to Erie, PA, where Mercyhurst is located to meet with then-Lakers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. If that name sounds familiar that’s because, yes, that’s the same Joe Lombardi that was just fired by the Denver Broncos.

Mercyhurst is favored by 8.5 points, and the statistical profile heavily supports them covering this number at home. The biggest mismatch in this game is the Mercyhurst defense against the Saint Francis offense. Saint Francis ranks near the bottom of the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (352nd) and Effective Field Goal Percentage (46.4%).

Furthermore, Saint Francis has struggled immensely on the defensive end, allowing opponents to shoot a staggering 60.1% Effective FG% (365th in D1). Mercyhurst, while not an offensive juggernaut, is much more disciplined, ranking 53rd nationally in turnover percentage (19.9% forced). Expect the Lakers to use their superior defensive pressure to create easy transition opportunities.

Mercyhurst plays at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country, ranking 341st in Adjusted Tempo (64.0 possessions per game). They excel at grinding games down and forcing opponents into long, contested possessions. 

St. Francis prefers a faster pace (96th in tempo), but they lack the efficiency to consistently put up high point totals against a disciplined defense. Mercyhurst allows only 65.3 points per game (20th in the nation). Prior to their last outing against Chicago State, Mercyhurst held four straight opponents to 61 points or less. St. Francis's offensive struggles (32.9% from three-point range) suggest they will find it difficult to break through the Lakers' perimeter defense.

Mercyhurst's home-court advantage at the Mercyhurst Athletic Center is significant in the NEC. St. Francis has shown flashes, such as Ahmad Harrison's 16-point performance in their last game, but they lack the depth and defensive stops required to win on the road against a team that ranks 100 spots higher in defensive efficiency.

Mercyhurst's Jake Lemelman is coming off a stellar performance where he dropped 21 points and 7 assists in 34 minutes. He shot 60% from the field and is the engine that drives the Lakers' offense. His ability to facilitate and score efficiently makes him the most dangerous player on the floor.

Harrison is the primary threat for the Red Flash, recording 16 points and 6 rebounds in the Red Flash’s most recent game, an 81-69 loss to New Haven. However, his efficiency has been a concern (31.3% shooting in his last game). For Saint Francis to keep this close, Harrison will need to improve his shot selection against a Mercyhurst defense that forces 12.9 turnovers per game.

The Red Flash are ranked 331st in points allowed (80.5 PPG). As mentioned earlier, the Lakers are 20th (65.3 PPG). This 15-point gap in defensive scoring is the defining characteristic of this matchup.

Get free CBB Picks and CBB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 CBB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert CBB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the CBB betting community the best CBB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best CBB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: ST. FRANCIS (PA) TEAM TOTAL UNDER 64.5

Mercyhurst is one of the best defensive teams in the Northeast Conference. The Lakers hold teams to 65.3 points per game, which ranks 20th in the nation. St. Francis averages 70 ppg, but they struggle against very good defenses. In league play, Stonehill, LeMoyne, and LIU each held the Red Flash to 63 or fewer points. St. Francis also struggles on the road. They are 1-8 SU and have gone Under this team total in 5 of 9 road games. Last year at Mercyhurst, the Lakers won holding St. Francis to just 58 points. 

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Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.