Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/17/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/17/26

TEXAS vs. NC STATE (NCST -1.5, 158.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

LONGHORNS @ WOLFPACK 3/17/26

The First Four is officially here, and tonight’s matchup between Texas and NC State is easily the highlight of the round. This is a rare March Madness rematch from a November shootout where Texas came away with a 102-97 victory. Both teams have struggled down the stretch, but their high-octane offenses and defensive lapses make this game a prime target for bettors.

While Texas won the early-season meeting, NC State presents a higher ceiling in this spot. The Wolfpack's identity is built on elite three-point shooting and ball security, ranking 10th nationally in three-point percentage. This creates a massive statistical mismatch against a Texas defense that ranks 299th in the country at defending the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 36% from deep.

NC State finished conference play with the lowest offensive turnover rate in the ACC, which is critical in a high-pressure tournament environment. While they struggled late in the season, their ability to cover up their defensive flaws with elite shooting makes them a dangerous underdog. When they hit their season average of 38% or better from three, they are 15-2 SU this year.

Everything about this matchup screams track meet. When these two met in November, they combined for 199 points. Texas ranks 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 4th in the nation in free-throw rate, meaning they consistently generate points even when the clock is stopped. NC State, meanwhile, allows a high free-throw rate (226th), which plays right into the Longhorns' hands.

Neither team has shown much defensive discipline lately. Texas's defense dropped outside the top 150 against Quad 1 opponents, and NC State has ranked in the bottom 250 defensively since early February. With both teams featuring individual scorers like Dailyn Swain for Texas and Quadir Copeland for NC State, expect a high-possession game with plenty of trips to the charity stripe.

Texas averages close to 20 made free throws per game and finished 2nd in the SEC in that category. The Longhorns are also 1-6 when allowing teams to hit better than 42% from the outside. That can’t happen tonight against an elite shooting team like NC State.

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FREE PICK: DARRION WILLIAMS OVER 12.5 POINTS

Williams takes nearly 27 percent of NC State’s shots. That has allowed him to clear 12.5 points in 16 of his 32 games this season. When the Wolfpack played Texas back in November, Williams was held to just 10 points mainly due to foul trouble. He can play inside or out and has hit multiple three-pointers in 20 of 32 games. Texas doesn’t defend the perimeter well. They rank 307th in three-point defense. Williams should get plenty of looks like he has recently. He has cashed on this prop with 13 or more points in 4 of his last 7 games.

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