Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/18/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/18/26

MIAMI (OH)  vs. SMU (SMU -6.5, 163.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

REDHAWKS @ MUSTANGS 3/18/26

The First Four of the 2026 NCAA Tournament brings us a fascinating Midwest Region clash in Dayton between the SMU Mustangs and the Miami (OH) RedHawks. This is a classic matchup of styles: SMU comes in with a high-octane offense and ACC pedigree, while Miami (OH) enters with a staggering 31-1 record and some of the most efficient shooting metrics in the country.

SMU enters this game as the superior team according to advanced efficiency metrics. The Mustangs boast an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 123.0, which ranks 27th nationally. While Miami (OH) has an incredible record, their Strength of Schedule (SOS) Net Rating is ranked 269th, suggesting they haven't faced the same level of competition that SMU dealt with in the ACC. SMU has proven they can compete with elite talent, evidenced by their regular-season win over North Carolina (97-83) where they posted a 148.1 offensive efficiency rating.

The Mustangs' ability to dominate the offensive glass will be a deciding factor. SMU ranks 42nd nationally in Offensive Rebound Percentage (35.4%), while Miami (OH) struggles significantly in this area, ranking 332nd in Offensive Rebound Percentage (25.3%). This discrepancy suggests SMU will earn numerous second-chance opportunities against a RedHawks defense that ranks 149th in efficiency.

Both teams are offensive juggernauts that prefer a brisk pace. Miami (OH) ranks 49th in Adjusted Tempo (69.9), while SMU isn't far behind at 110th (68.6). More importantly, both teams are elite at putting the ball in the basket. Miami (OH) ranks 6th in the nation in effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) at 59.2%, led by their incredible two-point shooting (61.5%, 2nd in NCAA).

SMU's offense is even more potent, averaging 123.0 points per 100 possessions. In their last 10 games, SMU has maintained an offensive efficiency of 122.3. Miami (OH) has shown a tendency to get into high-scoring track meets recently, such as their 110-108 overtime win against Ohio and their 105-102 win over Buffalo. With both teams shooting over 37% from beyond the arc (Miami 21st, SMU 23rd), this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair.

The Mustangs have a Barthag rating (win probability adjusted for stats) of .8608, ranking 42nd in the country, compared to Miami (OH) at .7175 (86th). SMU's experience in "Quality Games" is vastly superior. They played 13 games against Q1/Q2 opponents, whereas Miami (OH) played zero Q1 games and only three Q2 games all season.

The individual talent gap is also notable. SMU's Boopie Miller is a high-usage guard (25.9% Usg) who averages a 124.8 ORtg and shoots 41% from deep. He is complemented by B.J. Edwards, who provides elite perimeter defense (4.0% steal rate). Miami (OH) will rely heavily on Peter Suder and Antwone Woolfolk, but they will find it difficult to match SMU's depth and athleticism over 40 minutes.

The narrative surrounding this game centers on whether Miami (OH)'s luck rating and shooting can overcome SMU's power. Miami (OH) ranks 15th in the nation in Luck Rating according to KenPom, having gone 10-1 in close games this season. While that shows poise, it also suggests they have been living on the edge against a much weaker MAC schedule.

SMU, conversely, has been battle-tested in the ACC. Despite a late-season slide where they lost four of their last five games, those losses came against tournament-level competition like Florida State, Miami (FL), and Louisville. The Mustangs' ability to protect the rim (80th in Block %) and force turnovers will be tested by a Miami (OH) team that is 39th in taking care of the ball. However, the sheer volume of extra possessions SMU should gain through offensive rebounding makes them the analytical favorite to cover and win.

Get free CBB Picks and CBB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 CBB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert CBB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the CBB betting community the best CBB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best CBB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: MIAMI (OH) 1H TEAM TOTAL OVER 36.5

I would caution anyone who buys into the whole “Miami is overrated” narrative. Schedule strength is something that I understand (but don’t like), but I also get that Miami head coach Travis Steele is using it to his team’s benefit. “Miami didn’t play anybody.” Well, tonight they’re playing somebody. And that somebody, SMU, is not very good defensively. The Mustangs rank 303rd in the nation in points allowed per game (78.4). That’s not good against the No. 1 shooting team in the nation. Miami ranks 1st in FG% (52.4), 2nd in eFG% (61.3), 2nd in 2PT FG% (63.2), 8th in 3PT FG% (39.2), and 2nd in scoring (90.9). Miami is also No. 3 in the nation in 1H scoring, averaging 42.8. Miami has scored at least 37 1H points in 16 of its last 17 games and 28 of 32 for the season. Sure, they “didn’t play anybody” but SMU ranked 288th in 1H points allowed (37.1). Both teams play an up-tempo style. Both rank in the top-50 in possessions per game. That pace, Miami’s shooting, and SMU’s lack of defense will lead to a high-scoring first half.

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