Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/26/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/27/26

TENNESSEE vs. IOWA STATE (ISU -3.5, 138.5))

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

VOLUNTEERS @ CYCLONES 3/27/26

The Sweet 16 brings us a heavyweight clash at the United Center between the No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones and the No. 6 seed Tennessee Volunteers. This matchup features two of the most elite defensive units in the country, with Iowa State coming in as a 3.5-point favorite. The Cyclones are fresh off an 82-63 dismantling of Kentucky, while Tennessee advanced by outlasting Virginia 79-72.

Iowa State has been one of the most consistent teams in the country against the spread, boasting a 23-13 ATS record this season. They enter this game on a 6-0 ATS run, showing they are peaking at the right moment. The Cyclones' defense is their calling card, ranking 13th nationally by allowing just 65.4 points per game and forcing 15.3 turnovers per contest. Their ability to disrupt passing lanes (9.1 steals per game) should pose significant problems for a Tennessee offense that can occasionally stagnate.

Tennessee, while dangerous, has been less reliable for bettors, holding a 16-19 ATS record. While they have the size to compete on the glass, Iowa State’s offensive efficiency (49.1% from the field, 18th in NCAA) gives them the edge in a game where every possession will be contested. The Cyclones' backcourt, led by Tamin Lipsey, is playing at an elite level, and their ability to force turnovers should lead to the easy transition buckets necessary to cover this short spread.

When you put two top-tier defenses on the same floor in a high-stakes neutral-site game, the Under is often the smartest play. Tennessee ranks 14th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, while Iowa State sits in the top tier of the Big 12 defensively. Tennessee allows opponents to shoot just 40.8% from the field and 30.3% from beyond the arc.

Both teams prefer a physical, grinding style of play. Tennessee’s adjusted tempo ranks 305th in the nation, meaning they are perfectly comfortable taking the air out of the ball and working deep into the shot clock. While Iowa State can score, they won't be able to run as freely against a Tennessee transition defense that ranks among the best in the SEC. Expect a low-scoring, defensive battle where points are at a premium.

J.P. Estrella has become a vital interior presence for the Volunteers. He currently leads the team in Offensive Rating (129.1) and Effective Field Goal percentage (62.8%). His efficiency is off the charts, shooting 67.6% on Close 2PT attempts and 94.1% on dunks. Against an Iowa State defense that focuses heavily on perimeter pressure and forcing turnovers, Tennessee will likely look to exploit Estrella in the paint and via second-chance opportunities. His points prop is set at 10.5 and is worth a look.

Estrella’s offensive rebounding rate of 17.6% is elite, and in a game where missed shots will be frequent, his ability to clean up the glass and get put-back buckets will be crucial. Iowa State allows 30.9 rebounds per game, and if Tennessee can win the battle on the boards, Estrella will be the primary beneficiary.

Ja'Kobi Gillespie is the engine that makes Tennessee go, averaging 18.4 points and 5.6 assists per game. In the previous round against Virginia, he was spectacular, logging 21 points and 6 assists in 38 minutes of action. He is a high-usage player (25.7% Usage Rate) who rarely leaves the floor, playing 85.7% of available minutes.

Gillespie’s ability to contribute across all three major statistical categories makes a combo prop very attractive. He is a 34.5% shooter from deep but does most of his damage as a playmaker and finisher. Given the intensity expected at the start of this Sweet 16 matchup, expect Tennessee to lean on their senior leader early and often to settle the team down.

Tamin Lipsey is coming off a masterclass performance against Kentucky, where he dropped 26 points and dished out 10 assists. He is the heart of the Cyclones' offense, shooting 53.3% in his last outing. Lipsey averages 5.1 assists per game but has shown the aggressive scoring mentality needed in the tournament.

Tennessee’s defense is stout, but they can be vulnerable to elite point guard play that can penetrate the perimeter. 

Both coaches, Rick Barnes (Tennessee) and T.J. Otzelberger (Iowa State), have built programs centered on elite defense. Iowa State players have publicly noted that Tennessee plays a similar style to their own, emphasizing that rebounding and "out-intensifying" the opponent will be the deciding factors.

Iowa State thrives on chaos, forcing over 15 turnovers per game. Tennessee’s Ja'Kobi Gillespie will be under immense pressure to take care of the ball. If the Volunteers turn it over at their season average (17.3% TO rate), Iowa State could run away with this game.

Tennessee holds a statistical advantage on the glass, grabbing 42.5 rebounds per game compared to Iowa State's 35.8. Nate Ament (6.4 RPG) and Felix Okpara will need to dominate the boards to prevent Iowa State from getting second-chance points.

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FREE PICK: TENNESSEE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 68.5

This does not happen very often. In fact, Tennessee averages 80.2 ppg and scored 68 or fewer points just four times all season. Those four games were against some pretty good defenses - Vanderbilt, Florida, Illinois, and Syracuse. Illinois just held Houston to 55 points to advance to the Elite Eight and the Illini held the Vols to 62 points in an early season game. Iowa State’s calling card is defense and the way they get it done is by forcing turnovers. Tennessee has some issues turning the ball over (249th in TO rate). ISU won’t have Josh Jefferson, but they didn’t have him for most of the game against Kentucky. The Cyclones rallied, held Kentucky to 63 points and won. ISU has held 5 of its last 7 opponents Under their team total. Four of those five Unders were held to 65 points or less. 

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