Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/13/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/13/26

NY METS @ LA DODGERS (LAD -181, 9)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS

METS @ DODGERS 4/13/26

The New York Mets travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium tonight. This matchup features a fascinating pitching duel between veteran left-hander David Peterson for the Mets and the young, talented southpaw Justin Wrobleski for the Dodgers. Both teams are dealing with significant injury concerns, most notably the Mets missing Juan Soto and the Dodgers playing without Mookie Betts.

The Dodgers enter this contest as home favorites, and the statistical profile of the Mets' starter, David Peterson, suggests why. While Peterson is a seasoned veteran, the current Dodgers roster has historically feasted on his offerings. In 120 career plate appearances against Peterson, the Dodgers' hitters boast a collective .325 batting average and a massive .553 slugging percentage.

The Dodgers' lineup remains potent even without Betts, featuring Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, both of whom have solid track records against Peterson. Furthermore, the Dodgers are playing at home where the park factor for runs (104) and home runs (130) significantly favors the offense. Given the Mets' injury-depleted bullpen—with Clay Holmes and Nate Lavender listed as day-to-day and several others on the 60-day IL—the Dodgers have a clear path to victory if they can get to Peterson early.

Andy Pages has been an absolute spark plug for the Dodgers and represents one of the best value plays on the board tonight. His recent form is impeccable, having recorded a hit in 90% of his last 10 games and 80% of his last 5. He is currently averaging 1.8 hits per game over his last 10 outings, which gives tremendous value to his Over 0.5 Hits prop.

The matchup against Peterson is particularly mouth-watering for Pages. In 10 career at-bats against the Mets' lefty, Pages has 6 hits, including a home run, resulting in a staggering .600 batting average and a .900 slugging percentage. His average exit velocity against Peterson is 94.0 mph, indicating he is making consistently hard contact. With an 80% hit rate for the season and a history of dominance in this specific matchup, Pages is a top-tier selection.

Betting against Ohtani is rarely a profitable endeavor, especially when he's facing a pitcher he has historically handled well. Ohtani has recorded at least one hit in 80% of his last 5 and 10 games. His season-long hit rate stands at 73.33%, and he has been particularly effective against the Mets, hitting the over on his Hits prop in 71.43% of his career matchups against them.

Against Peterson specifically, Ohtani has 7 hits in 18 at-bats (.389 AVG). While Peterson has managed to strike him out 6 times, Ohtani's ability to generate high exit velocity (94.9 mph average vs Peterson) means that when he puts the ball in play, it often finds a gap. Given the hitter-friendly environment of Dodger Stadium (102 Park Factor for Hits), Ohtani is well-positioned to record at least one hit.

On the Mets' side, Francisco Alvarez provides the most reliable path to offensive production tonight. Alvarez has been seeing the ball exceptionally well lately, hitting the over on his hits prop in 80% of his last 5 games and 70% of his last 10. While he hasn't faced Wrobleski before, his performance as a visitor this season has been strong, recording a hit in 66.67% of his road games.

Alvarez is currently averaging 1.0 hits per game over his last 5 contests. With the Mets missing the middle-of-the-order presence of Juan Soto, the pressure is on Alvarez to produce. He has shown the ability to handle left-handed pitching throughout his young career, and his 64.29% season hit rate suggests he is a consistent threat at the plate.

While Wrobleski is a promising young arm for the Dodgers, the current line of 3.5 strikeouts appears slightly inflated based on his recent performance metrics. In his 2 starts this season, Wrobleski has failed to record more than 2 strikeouts in either outing, giving him a 0% hit rate on the over for this line. Even looking back at his last 20 appearances, he has only cleared 3.5 strikeouts 15% of the time.

Wrobleski is averaging just 2.0 strikeouts per game this season. The Mets' lineup, while missing Soto, still features disciplined hitters like Francisco Lindor, Jose Iglesias and Jeff McNeil. Wrobleski's primary goal tonight will likely be efficiency and inducing weak contact rather than chasing high strikeout totals, making the under a sharp analytical play.

The absence of Soto (10-Day IL) is a massive blow to the Mets' offensive ceiling. Additionally, the Mets' bullpen is in a state of flux with Holmes and Lavender day-to-day, which could force David Peterson to stay in the game longer than ideal or force the Mets to use lower-leverage arms in tight spots.

Missing Betts (10-Day IL) is significant, but the Dodgers' depth is on full display with Pages stepping up. The Dodgers also have a lengthy list of pitchers on the 60-day IL (Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller), which has accelerated the timeline for Wrobleski.

Dodger Stadium is playing very hitter-friendly for home runs (130 factor), which favors the Dodgers' power-heavy approach against Peterson, who has surrendered 7 home runs to this current roster in the past.

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FREE PICK: OVER 8.5

You can get 8.5 at -125 to -135 at several sportsbooks. The Dodgers are No. 1 in MLB in scoring, averaging 6.07 runs per game. David Peterson starts for the Mets and he’s been awful. He’s 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA. Peterson has allowed 5 ER in back-to-back starts and he hasn’t been very good against the Dodgers.  In 120 career plate appearances against current Dodgers, Peterson has allowed a batting average of .325 and a slugging percentage of .553. Peterson pitched in Dodger Stadium last year. He didn’t pitch terribly, but he did give up 3 ER and the Mets went on to lose 6-5. More importantly, the game went Over the total which has happened in 10 of the last 14 Mets-Dodgers games. The total has gone Over in 6 of the Dodgers last 9 games and in 8 of the last 10 Mets games at Dodger Stadium.

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