Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/17/26
- rbowe7447
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
CHICAGO WHITE SOX @ ATHLETICS (ATH -163, 9.5)
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WHITE SOX @ ATHLETICS 4/17/26
The Chicago White Sox travel to Sacramento to take on the Athletics tonight at Sutter Health Park. This matchup features two teams looking to find consistency, with the Athletics currently favored at home. The pitching matchup features Davis Martin for the White Sox against Aaron Civale for the Athletics.
The Athletics enter this contest as the statistical favorite, and the data supports backing them at home. Aaron Civale takes the mound for Oakland, and he has historically performed well against this White Sox roster. In 29 plate appearances against current Chicago hitters, Civale has allowed a collective .375 average, but more importantly, he has shown the ability to navigate the top of their order. While Andrew Benintendi has had success against him (.385 BA in 16 PA), Civale has dominated other key pieces like Reese McGuire, holding him to a .250 average with three strikeouts in just nine plate appearances.
The White Sox are also dealing with a significant injury bug that has depleted both their rotation and depth. With key arms like Jonathan Cannon, Drew Thorpe, and Ky Bush on the IL, and offensive pieces like Austin Hays sidelined, the White Sox are forced to rely on Martin. Martin has been respectable in limited action against Oakland, but his 18.2% strikeout rate suggests he will pitch to contact, which could be dangerous against an Athletics lineup that features high-upside bats like Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, and Jacob Wilson.
While both starting pitchers have had their struggles, the Under is a strong consideration here. Sutter Health Park factors are not fully established in the historical data, but the current offensive trends for both teams point toward a lower-scoring affair. Davis Martin has actually been quite effective against the current Athletics roster, holding them to a meager .188 batting average over 33 plate appearances. He has specifically neutralized power threats like Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom, both of whom are hitless against him in their careers.
On the other side, Aaron Civale’s 20.7% strikeout rate against this White Sox lineup should help him navigate out of jams. The White Sox offense has struggled with consistency all season, and without Austin Hays in the lineup, their run-producing potential is capped. When you combine Martin's specific success against Oakland's bats with the White Sox's general offensive struggles, 9.5 runs feels like a high bar to clear.
Wilson has been a spark plug recently for the A’s and represents excellent value at plus money to go Over his Hits+Runs+RBIs (HRR) prop. He’s gone Over in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging a massive 3.4 HRR per game. His season average of 2.0 also sits comfortably above this line.
Wilson has a favorable history against Martin, recording a double in his limited head-to-head matchups. Furthermore, when playing away from home (or in this neutral-site environment), he has hit the over in 71.43% of his games this season. His ability to put the ball in play combined with his recent hot streak makes this a top-tier play.
Butler is one of the most consistent contact hitters in the Athletics' lineup right now. He has recorded at least one hit in 3 of his last 5 and 6 of his last 10. More impressively, he has a dominant history against the White Sox, hitting the over on his Hits prop in 80% of his career matchups against them, averaging 1.2 hits per game in those contests.
Butler has already seen Davis Martin and had success, including a home run and a double in just 8 plate appearances. His .250 average against Martin doesn't tell the whole story; his .750 slugging percentage in that matchup proves he sees Martin's pitches very well. Expect him to find grass at least once tonight.
The White Sox have lost three straight and 5 of their last 6. They rank at or near the bottom of MLB in most offensive statistical categories. Chicago is dead last in batting average (.195) and OPS (.602) and is 29th in scoring (3.16). The A’s have won 5 of the last 6 games against the White Sox and 7 of the last 10 when playing them at home.
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The A’s have won 7 of their last 9 games which has put them in a tie with the Rangers for the top spot in the American League West Division as the teams head into their weekend series. Aaron Civale (2-0, 1.72) pitches for the A’s and he’s been excellent so far in 2026. He has decent numbers against the White Sox though Andrew Benintendi does hold a .385 BA in 13 AB. Civale does have a 20% K rate against Chicago and if he can navigate Benintendi, he should be okay. Remember, the White Sox are last in MLB in BA (.195) and OPS (.602) which is why they rank 29th in scoring (3.16). Davis Martin (2-0, 2.50) starts for Chicago and he’s also been excellent. He went 7 innings and allowed 2 ER in his last start but still lost the game as his teammates couldn’t score a run in a 2-0 loss to KC. But, Martin does have an xERA of 5.08 which is directly related to his 54% Hard Hit Rate and his 28.6% Ground Ball Rate. The A’s have some bats (Langeliers, Wilson, Butler, etc.) that can hit, especially at home.
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