Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/28/25
- rbowe7447
- 4 days ago
- 2 min read
NY YANKEES @ BALTIMORE (NYY -125, 9.5)
YANKEES OVER 4.5 RUNS
Expect some runs in this one, especially from the Yankees. You can see it reflected in the total, but it's also Baltimore starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano. He was a very good pitcher in Japan, earning the Nippon Central League MVP award three times. If you look on paper and see that he is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA, you probably think, "hey, here's another one of those good Japanese pitchers." That's what it looks like on the surface.
Underneath, however, there are some bad things coming for Sugano. It has actually started already. Sugano's xERA sits at 6.11 right now. In his last two starts, Sugano has surrendered a total of 4 home runs. Luckily, there weren't many baserunners when those home runs were hit. Sugano gave up 5 earned runs in those two starts.
If you dig a little deeper, you'll also learn that Sugano has struck out just five batters in the 28 innings that he has pitched. He also hasn't faced the toughest of lineups either. Sugano has two starts against Toronto, a bottom-10 scoring team, one against Cleveland (another bottom-10), and Washington.
The Yankees are No. 2 in the majors in scoring. They average 5.38 runs per game. They've gone Over 4.5 runs in 3 of their last 4 and in 4 of their last 5 against Baltimore.
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