Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/28/26
- rbowe7447
- 2 days ago
- 6 min read
ARIZONA @ MILWAUKEE (MIL -118, 8)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS
DIAMONDBACKS @ BREWERS 4/28/26
The Arizona Diamondbacks (15-12) travel to American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (14-13) in what oddsmakers expect to be a tightly contested series opener. Both teams are coming off high-scoring or emotional weekend series and are looking to establish momentum in their respective divisions.
The Brewers are slight favorites at home, and the statistical profile of this matchup supports a lean toward the Brew Crew. Milwaukee is starting Chad Patrick, who has been a model of consistency this season. Patrick holds a 1-1 record with a stellar 2.35 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. More importantly, the Brewers have covered the run line in each of his three starts this season, and the team is 2-0 when he starts as a moneyline favorite.
Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, who has struggled significantly in the early going. Kelly enters this contest with a bloated 9.31 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his two starts this season. In his last outing on April 21 against the White Sox, he was tagged for 8 earned runs in just 4.1 innings. While Kelly has historically performed well against Milwaukee (3-0 in his last three starts against them dating back to 2023), his current form is a major liability. Milwaukee’s offense, which ranks 5th in runs scored (4.87 per game), is could exploit Kelly's recent command issues. The Brewers have been the worst team in MLB over the past two weeks against RHP, hitting just .192.
GAME TOTAL LEAN
The offensive trends for both teams suggest the Over is the play. Arizona ranks 7th in the league in scoring (4.9 runs per game) and 6th in batting average (.255). They are coming off a 12-run explosion against the Padres on Sunday. But, the DBacks were playing in Mexico City in a ballpark at elevation with smaller dimensions than most MLB parks.
Arizona’s pitching staff has struggled and Kelly is coming off a game in which he allowed 8 ER. You can add in an Arizona bullpen that has blown 6 of 15 save opportunities and assume the Over is in play. That is all warranted, but then ask yourself why did this line open at 8? It feels like it should have been 8.5. Early betting took this line up to 8.5, but it has been bet back down to 8.
Both teams are rested, which means both bullpens are rested. Patrick has pitched well all season so far and Kelly is not going to give up 8 ER again. Plus, the Brewers have really struggled against RHP lately. If you’re playing the total, bet against the public and take the Under.
PLAYER PROP RECOMMENDATIONS
Ildemaro Vargas is currently the hottest hitter in the Diamondbacks' lineup. He is coming off a massive performance on Sunday where he went 3-for-5 with a double, triple, and a home run. Playing Vargas to just record a hit (Over 0.5 Hits) is a solid play. His recent statistical trends are elite:
Last 5 Games: 100% hit rate (averaging 1.6 hits per game).
Last 10 Games: 100% hit rate (averaging 1.4 hits per game).
Season Performance: He has recorded at least one hit in 100% of his 18 games played this season.
Road Splits: In 8 away games this year, he has a 100% hit rate.
Ketel Marte remains the engine of the Arizona offense. While his season batting average is .255, his recent form indicates he is locked in at the plate. Backing Marte to go Over 0.5 Hits is always worth a look. You can use it as a parlay piece too. Here are his recent numbers:
Last 5 Games: 100% hit rate (averaging 1.4 hits per game).
Last 10 Games: 90% hit rate.
Head-to-Head: In his last 3 games against Milwaukee in 2025, he hit the over in 100% of those contests.
Marte has a high contact rate and is facing Patrick, who, despite a low ERA, has allowed 134 hits in 142 career innings. Marte’s ability to hit both lefties and righties makes him a safe bet to find grass at least once tonight, especially given his perfect hit rate over the last five games.
Kelly has been a "hit magnet" in his recent starts. He’s only started two games this season, but he’s given up 5 and 10 hits in those games. Tonight’s Hits Prop is set at 4.5 juiced to the Over at -140. Going back to last season, Kelly’s numbers aren’t great.
Last 5 Starts: 100% over rate on hits allowed (averaging 8.2 hits allowed per game).
Last 10 Starts: 80% over rate.
Season Trend: In his 2 starts this season, he has allowed an average of 7.5 hits.
Vs. Milwaukee: In his most recent start against the Brewers in 2025, he surrendered 10 hits.
Milwaukee’s lineup features high-contact hitters like William Contreras and Sal Frelick. Given Kelly's recent WHIP of 2.11 and his tendency to leave pitches in the heart of the zone, the Brewers should have no trouble reaching the 5-hit mark against him early in the game.
Jose Fernandez has quietly been one of the most reliable producers for Arizona over the last two weeks. He has at least one hit in 9 straight games and he’s been crushing his Hits, Runs & RBIs prop. Take a look at his recent numbers:
Last 5 Games: 80% hit rate (averaging 3.6 H+R+RBI).
Last 15 Games: 80% hit rate.
Road Performance: He has hit the over on this prop in 77.8% of his visitor games this season.
Recent Form: He is averaging 1.6 hits per game over his last 5 starts, giving him a massive floor for this combined prop.
Fernandez is frequently batting in run-producing spots, and his high contact rate (averaging 1.18 hits on the season) makes the 1.5 line very attainable. Fernandez to record a hit is priced at -177. His Over 1.5 HRR prop opened at 0.5 and moved up to the current line, priced at +120.
INJURY NEWS
The Diamondbacks are dealing with several key absences, including Carlos Santana (1B) and Gabriel Moreno (C), both on the 10-day IL. The loss of Moreno is particularly impactful for the pitching staff's game-calling. Corbin Carroll is also listed as Day-to-Day with a hamate bone issue, which could sap his power if he plays.
The Brewers are missing Christian Yelich (10-day IL, groin) and Jackson Chourio (10-day IL, hand). While these are significant losses, the Brewers' depth has stepped up, as evidenced by their 5-0 shutout of the Pirates on Sunday.
Patrick is looking to solidify his spot in the rotation. He has been efficient, while Kelly is fighting through a mechanical slump that has seen his ERA balloon to nearly double digits in his two starts this year.
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FREE PICK: JOSE FERNANDEZ OVER 1.5 HRR
Fernandez has recorded at least one hit in 9 straight games. He has a high contact rate and he hits behind guys that typically get on base. As a result, he’s gone Over this prop in 4 straight games and 8 of the last 9. For the season, Fernandez has played in 19 games. He’s gone Over 1.5 HRR 14 times. This prop actually opened at 0.5 and moved to 1.5. It’s still priced at +110 at most books. Fernandez hasn’t faced Patrick in his career, but he’s batting .321 vs. RHP and .342 overall.
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