Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 5/12/26
- rbowe7447
- 22 hours ago
- 4 min read
ST. LOUIS @ ATHLETICS (ATH -156, 10.5)
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COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS
CARDINALS @ ATHLETICS 5/12/26
The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Sutter Health Park to take on the Oakland Athletics tonight, May 12th, 2026. This matchup features an intriguing pitching battle between Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante and Athletics left-hander Jeffrey Springs. With both teams looking to find consistency in the 2026 season, the statistical data points toward several high-value opportunities in the game lines and player prop markets.
The Athletics enter this contest as home favorites, and the pitching matchup heavily favors Oakland. Jeffrey Springs has shown a solid ability to navigate this Cardinals lineup in limited action. He has three career starts against St. Louis and he has a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings of work. He owns a 21.4% strikeout rate and a career 0.351 wOBA against this roster.
On the other side, Andre Pallante has very little experience against this Oakland squad, having faced only two current members (Jeff McNeil and Jonah Heim). While he has a respectable career BA against them, the lack of familiarity often favors the pitchers in modern matchups. Oakland's home-field advantage at Sutter Health Park, combined with a more established starter in Springs, makes the Athletics the definitive choice here.
SUTTER HEALTH PARK #1 IN BALLPARK FACTOR
While Sutter Health Park data is limited, the pitching dynamics suggest a higher-scoring affair. Andre Pallante’s low strikeout rate means the ball will be in play frequently, putting pressure on the Cardinals' defense. Conversely, while Springs is a capable starter, the Cardinals' lineup features several players who have historically hit him well, including Masyn Winn (.500 BA in 6 PA) and Pedro Pagés (.500 BA in 4 PA).
With both teams showing a tendency to put runners on base against these specific starters, a total of 10 feels slightly low. Keep in mind that 12 of the last 17 games played at Sutter Health Park have gone Over the total. Expect both offenses to capitalize on the lack of dominant "swing-and-miss" stuff from the starters tonight.
TOP PLAYER PROPS TONIGHT
Zack Gelof is currently one of the hottest hitters in the Athletics' lineup. His recent performance metrics are elite, making his Over 0.5 Hits prop a strong value play at -165. Gelof has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 9 games, averaging 1.2 hits per contest. While his season average is .71 hits per game, his recent surge shows he has found his rhythm. In his career against the Cardinals, he has hit this Over 66.67% of the time, averaging 1.33 hits per game.
Alec Burleson has been a focal point of the Cardinals' offense, especially when playing away from home. His ability to contribute across multiple statistical categories makes his Over 1.5 HRR prop very attractive. Burleson has cleared the 1.5 HRR line in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10 games. He is currently averaging 2.6 HRR over his last 10 outings.
He performs significantly better on the road, hitting the Over on this prop in 68.42% of his road games this season, with a mean of 2.89 HRR. His season mean of 2.36 HRR is well above the 1.5 line, providing a comfortable cushion for bettors.
Given that we already like Gelof to get a hit, taking him to record at least one total base at the same price (-165) is a logical and statistically sound correlation. He has cleared 0.5 total bases in each of his last 5 games, averaging a massive 2.4 bases per game in that span. Against the Cardinals, he has averaged 3.0 total bases per game in past matchups, hitting the over 66.67% of the time. His 90% hit rate over the last 10 games suggests he is seeing the ball exceptionally well right now.
Jordan Walker has been the primary run-scorer for the Cardinals recently, benefiting from hitting in front of productive bats like Burleson. Walker has scored a run in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging nearly a run per game (0.9) in that stretch. He maintains a 64.1% hit rate for runs scored over 39 games this season. While he is 0-for-2 in career PA against Springs, his current form (60% over last 5) suggests he is finding ways to get on base and cross the plate regardless of the pitcher.
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FREE PICK: JORDAN WALKER OVER 1.5 HRR
Walker has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games, including his last game on Sunday night when he hit his 11th homer of the season against San Diego. Over his last 10 games, Walker is averaging a ridiculous 3.1 HRR. For the season, Walker has cleared 1.5 HRR in 24 of 38 (63%) games. He’s also been very successful on the road, hitting this number in 6 of his last 7 road games and in 13 of 19 (68%) for the season. Walker is batting .299 on the season and while he’s 0-for-2 against Springs in his career, Walker does own a 165.9 wRC+ against LHP. Springs might be the A’s best arm, but keep in mind the A’s allow 5.04 runs per game which ranks 27th in MLB. Tonight’s game total has already moved from 10 to 10.5 and those runs have to come from somewhere.
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