Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/15/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/15/26

TAMPA BAY @ LA DODGERS (LAD -175, 9)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS

RAYS @ DODGERS 6/15/26

The Dodgers open as -150 favorites at most books, with the Rays coming in as +125 underdogs. However, the pitching matchup favors Tampa Bay. Nick Martinez has been stellar this season, carrying a 2.43 ERA over 77.2 innings. 

In contrast, the Dodgers are starting Eric Lauer, who has a 5.47 ERA on the season and was recently designated for assignment by Toronto before joining Los Angeles. While Lauer has a 2.76 ERA in three starts with the Dodgers, he remains a fly-ball pitcher in a stadium that ranks 13th in overall park factor.

SPREAD AND TOTAL ANALYSIS

The spread is set at Dodgers -1.5 (+125), but the Rays are 10-3 against the run line in Martinez's starts this year. The total is set at 9.0 runs. Some books have already moved to 9.5. Given Lauer’s tendency to give up the long ball and the Dodgers' high-powered offense (averaging 5.38 runs per game, 1st in MLB), the Over is a strong consideration, especially with the wind and park factors at Dodger Stadium favoring hitters tonight.

The Dodgers' offense is the best in baseball, and while Martinez is a strong starter, the Dodgers' bullpen has been taxed recently. On the other side, Lauer faces a Rays offense that just put up 8 runs yesterday. Lauer’s fly-ball profile at Dodger Stadium (HR factor of 129) is a recipe for scoring. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 Dodgers games. The Over has also hit in 6 of the last 8 when the Rays have played the Dodgers in LA.

RAYS MONEYLINE?

The Rays are 7-1 as moneyline underdogs in Martinez's eight starts this season. Martinez’s 2.43 ERA is far superior to Lauer’s season-long metrics. The Dodgers are also dealing with significant injuries; Will Smith is out with neck inflammation, Teoscar Hernández is sidelined with a hamstring strain, and Enrique Hernandez is out with an oblique strain. This price is too generous for a Rays team that consistently wins as an underdog in this specific pitching spot.

The Dodgers lineup with Freeman, Pages, Ohtani, Betts, and Muncy is still dangerous though. The Rays have cooled off recently, but they are 4-2 in their last 6 games. What the Rays have not done recently is beat the Dodgers. The two teams have met for a three-game series in each of the past two seasons. The Dodgers hold a 4-2 advantage.

BEST PLAYER PROPS TONIGHT

Martinez has been a workhorse for the Rays, hitting the Over on his Outs prop in 4 of his last 5 games and 9 of his last 10. He is averaging 18.3 outs over his last 10 appearances. Even against a tough Dodgers lineup, Martinez’s efficiency (13.3% K rate but low walk rate) allows him to pitch deep into games. He went 7.0 innings (21 outs) in his last start against Boston on June 9th.

Shohei Ohtani is in elite form, hitting the Over on the 1.5 Total Bases prop in each of his last 5 games and 9 of his last 10. He is averaging 3.2 bases per game over his last 10 outings. While Martinez has held Ohtani to a .100 batting average in limited career matchups (1-for-10), Ohtani’s current tear is undeniable. He leads a Dodgers offense that ranks 1st in runs per game, and his ability to find gaps or leave the park makes this 1.5 line very attainable.

Austin Slater has a massive statistical edge tonight against the lefty Eric Lauer. In 14 career plate appearances against Lauer, Slater is batting .429 with a home run. He has gone Over 0.5 Hits in 4 of his last 5 games. As a right-handed bat specifically utilized for these matchups, Slater is in a prime position to continue his historical dominance over Lauer.

NEWS & INJURIES

The loss of Will Smith (Neck) and Teoscar Hernández (Hamstring) significantly thins the middle of the Dodgers' order. Tyler Glasnow remains on the 60-day IL, forcing the Dodgers to rely on back-end starters like Lauer.

Tampa Bay is 7-3 in their last 10 games and coming off a dominant 8-3 win over the Angels yesterday. Their ability to win as underdogs (16-9 record as dogs) makes them a dangerous road team.

Martinez has been the Rays' most reliable arm, while Lauer is still trying to find his footing in the Dodgers' rotation after being designated for assignment earlier this year.

Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: OVER 9

Martinez appears to have the pitching advantage, but look closer. His xERA is 4.45 and his SIERA is 4.75. He only strikes out 14 percent of batters and his ground ball percentage (36%) could be higher. Over his last 4 starts, he’s allowed 32 hits but only 12 ER. At some point, it’s coming for Martinez and the Dodgers have the type of lineup that could make it happen. On the other end, the one thing that could prevent this Over is a Tampa Bay lineup that scored 8 runs yesterday. This could be a letdown spot against Lauer, who has pitched well in his 3 starts for LA. Regardless, the Dodgers are a top-3 scoring team in MLB, averaging 5.36 runs per game. Seven of their last eight games have gone Over the total and 6 of the last 8 against the Rays in LA have also cashed on the Over.

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