Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/14/26
- rbowe7447
- 4 days ago
- 5 min read
TEXAS @ BOSTON (BOS -114, 9)
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RANGERS @ RED SOX 6/14/26
Nathan Eovaldi returns to Fenway to face the Red Sox, while Boston sends rookie lefty Connelly Early to the hill. Fenway Park ranks 7th in MLB with a 102 overall Park Factor — hitter-friendly, especially for runs (104) and hits (104), but suppresses home runs (84).
Before we dive into the top moneyline play in this game, let’s first take a look at Eovaldi. His strikeouts prop today is set at 4.5 and there is tremendous value on the Over. Eovaldi has been an elite strikeout pitcher this season, and this line is set too low given his recent form and matchup history.
Consider the following:
Over his last 5 starts, hit the Over on 4.5 strikeouts 80% of the time, averaging 6.0 Ks per start
Over his last 10 starts: 70% hit rate, averaging 5.8 Ks
Over his last 15 starts: 80% hit rate, averaging 6.13 Ks
Over his last 20 starts: 75% hit rate, averaging 6.0 Ks
Season: 76.92% hit rate across 13 starts, averaging 5.92 Ks
In his career against the Red Sox, Eovaldi has 11 career starts against Boston. He started against them twice in 2025. He went 6 IP with 2 ER in one and 6 IP 1 ER in the other. He had 9 and 7 strikeouts hitting the Over on this prop both times.
RED SOX WEAKNESSES
Connor Wong has struck out in 33.3% of his 9 career PAs against Eovaldi. Jarren Duran has a 33.3% K rate in 9 PAs. Willson Contreras has a 33.3% K rate in 3 PAs and Carlos Narváez has a 50% K rate in 2 PAs.
Eovaldi has hit the Over in 77.78% of his 9 road starts this season, averaging 6.0 Ks away from home. Eovaldi is facing his former team at Fenway, where he's always been comfortable. The Red Sox lineup has several free-swingers who chase, and Eovaldi's stuff — particularly his splitter and fastball — plays well against a team that ranks middle of the pack in strikeout rate. With a 76.92% season hit rate and 100% hit rate against this opponent, this is one of the most reliable props on the board.
BACK RANGERS ON MONEYLINE
The Rangers are getting near-even money with a significant pitching advantage. Eovaldi is a proven veteran with elite strikeout stuff, while Connelly Early is a rookie with just 3 career plate appearances of MLB data against this Rangers roster.
Eovaldi has a 76.92% strikeout over hit rate and a 5.92 K/9 average. He’s been dominant against this Red Sox lineup. On the other side, Connelly Early has faced exactly 1 batter from the Rangers roster — Elias Díaz, who homered in his only at-bat against him. That's a 1.000 SLG and .688 wOBA in the only data point we have.
Take a look at the following stats for Eovaldi vs. Red Sox Hitters:
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 4-for-15 (.286 BA), .307 wOBA, 6.7% K rate — contact-oriented but not damaging
Connor Wong: 4-for-9 (.444 BA), .474 wOBA — the one guy who hits him well
Jarren Duran: 2-for-9 (.222 BA), .367 wOBA, 33.3% K rate
Wilyer Abreu: 3-for-7 (.429 BA), .710 wOBA, 2 HR — the biggest threat, but only 7 PAs
Ceddanne Rafaela: 0-for-6 (.000 BA), .000 wOBA — completely neutralized
Masataka Yoshida: 2-for-7 (.286 BA), .307 wOBA — manageable
INJURY IMPACT
The Red Sox are decimated by injuries. They have a number of key players on the IL, including pitchers Garrett Crocher, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck. Boston is missing key bats like Trevor Story and Triston Casas, a solid middle-of-the-order bat.
The Rangers, meanwhile, have Corey Seager listed as day-to-day but no major lineup absences. That said, it appears the lineup advantage goes to Texas.
TOP PLAYER PROP RECOMMENDATIONS
Ceddanne Rafaela has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and this line is a near-lock given his recent performance. Check out the following stats related to his Over 0.5 Hits prop:
Over the last 5 games: 80% hit rate, averaging 1.4 hits
Over the last 10 games: 80% hit rate, averaging 1.5 hits
Over the last 15 games: 80% hit rate, averaging 1.4 hits
Over the last 20 games: 80% hit rate, averaging 1.3 hits
Season: 70.77% hit rate across 65 games, averaging 1.03 hits
In 2 games against Texas this season, Rafaela has hit the Over 100% of the time, averaging 2.5 hits per game. That's absurd production. Rafaela is 0-for-6 against Eovaldi career, but that's a small sample and Rafaela's current form is undeniable. He's hitting .291 on the season and has been on a tear.
Rafaela has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the last month. He's hitting .291 on the season with an 80% hit rate over his last 20 games. Even against a tough pitcher like Eovaldi, Rafaela's contact skills and speed make him a threat to reach base every time up. At -240, the juice is heavy, but the probability of him getting at least one hit is extremely high. You could use this as a parlay leg too.
GAME TOTAL
Fenway Park is hitter-friendly (102 overall, 104 runs factor), and while Eovaldi is excellent, the Red Sox bullpen has been inconsistent and Connelly Early is a complete unknown against this Rangers lineup. Fenway Park ranks 7th in MLB for overall park factor and 4th for runs scored.
Eovaldi has been great, but he's facing a Red Sox lineup that has several hitters who have had success against him (Wilyer Abreu: .429 BA, .710 wOBA, 2 HR; Connor Wong: .444 BA, .474 wOBA).
Connelly Early has faced exactly 3 batters from the Rangers roster — Elias Díaz homered in his only at-bat
The Rangers lineup is deep and healthy, with Corey Seager day-to-day but expected to play. Both bullpens are mediocre — the Rangers have Jalen Beeks and Chris Martin on the IL, while the Red Sox are missing multiple arms
If there is a risk to playing the Over 9.5, it is that Eovaldi could dominate and keep the Red Sox off the board. However, the Rangers should be able to score against Early. If Texas puts up 5-6 runs, we only need Boston to get to 4-5 to hit the over. At +120, the value is significant.
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FREE PICK: NATHAN EOVALDI OVER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
Eovaldi has a strikeout percentage of nearly 23 percent and he’s gone Over this number in 10 of his 13 starts this season. Boston is middle-of-the-pack in terms of strikeouts per game. The Red Sox average 8.24 Ks per game, which ranks 13th in MLB. Over his last 20 starts, Eovaldi is averaging 6.0 Ks per game and has gone Over this number 15 times. He faced Boston twice last year and recorded 7 and 9 strikeouts. Look for him to get to 5 or more tonight.
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