Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/21/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/21/26

ST. LOUIS @ LA ANGELS (LAA -115, 9)

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CARDINALS @ ANGELS 7/21/26

There was a shift from St. Louis being a favorite to Los Angeles becoming the narrow favorite driven by a significant discrepancy in the starting pitching matchup and recent offensive trends.

The primary reason for the Angels' favorite status is Walbert Ureña (5-7, 2.88 ERA). Ureña has been elite recently, posting a sub-3.75 xERA in eight consecutive starts. He has only surrendered more than three runs once since late April, providing the Angels with consistent quality starts.

Tactically, Ureña is a nightmare for this specific Cardinals lineup. St. Louis currently ranks 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past month, hitting just .218 as a unit in that span. Ureña’s 2.83 ERA against teams with bottom-10 OPS marks suggests he is primed to stifle the Cardinals' bats tonight.

Conversely, the Cardinals send Matthew Liberatore (5-6, 5.00 ERA) to the mound. While Liberatore had a strong recent outing against Atlanta (6.0 IP, 0 ER), his season-long metrics are concerning. He ranks in the 11th percentile in xBA, meaning he bleeds hits and allows significant traffic.

The Angels' offense has been specifically productive against left-handed pitching lately, boasting a .268 batting average against southpaws in July. While the Angels struggle with overall power (29th in Fly Ball % this month), their ability to string together hits against lefties like Liberatore makes them a dangerous matchup for St. Louis.

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St. Louis has lost three of its last four games, including a demoralizing series against Arizona where they blew a 7-0 lead in one game. This "hangover effect" often influences market sentiment, as bettors shy away from teams in a psychological slump.

Despite their poor overall record (40-61), the Angels have been a respectable 27-23 at home when priced as a favorite or near-pick'em. They are coming off a 3-2 win over Detroit and have shown a knack for winning low-scoring, tight affairs at Angel Stadium.

The market is heavily leaning toward the Under, as both offenses have lacked isolated power (ISO) recently. St. Louis sits at a .126 ISO over the last two weeks, while Los Angeles is even lower at .104. The game total opened at 9.5, but most sportsbooks have now moved to a flat 9. 

The Angels have been an Under team this season, especially at home. The Angels O/U record for the season is 46-53-2 and at Angel Stadium the numbers are 20-29-1. Angel Stadium ranks 27th in Ballpark Factor, making it one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in MLB

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Liberatore averages only 4.6 strikeouts per start and has a below-average whiff rate (22.7%). Facing an Angels lineup that hits lefties well, he is unlikely to work deep enough to hit six strikeouts. His line is set at 5.5 and juiced at -140 to go Under. 

Liberatore has gone Over 5.5 Strikeouts in just 6 of his 19 starts this season. He started a game last year against the Angels and struck out 5. The Angels do strike out more than any team in MLB, but they have hit LHP fairly well over the last 30 days. LA ranks 8th in batting average vs. LHP over that 30-day span.

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FREE PICK: ANGELS F5 +0.5

With the lines so tight in this game, there is value in playing the Angels as a run line underdog in the F5 innings. Matthew Liberatore starts for St. Louis and since June 1, his ERA is 6.25. He’s 2-4 with a 5.44 in road starts too and he’s only had the lead after 5 innings once in his last 7 road starts. The Angels aren’t the greatest lineup, but over the last 30 days they are actually 8th in batting average against LHP. On the other end, Walbert Urena is only 5-7, but he does have a 2.88 ERA. Other than one bad start against the A’s (7 ER), he’s given up 3 or fewer ER in 6 of the last 7 starts. Urena is also 5-2-1 on F5 ML in his 8 home starts this season. The Angels have the third-most F5 RL wins this season (57-44) and they are 30-20 on the F5 RL at home this season. With a sketchy offense, back the Angels on the F5 run line laying the half run.

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