Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/23/25
- rbowe7447
- Jul 23
- 2 min read
BOSTON @ PHILADELPHIA (PHI -155, 8.5)
RED SOX +1.5
Philadelphia won the first two games of this series and now they are looking for the sweep with Jesus Luzardo on the mound. We talk all the time about how hard it is to sweep a three-game series. Only about 25 percent of all three-game series end up being swept.
Luzardo scares me. His ERA is up above 4.00 now (4.29) and that ERA is closer to 5.00 when he pitches at home. Luzardo allows opponents to hit .287 at Citizens Bank Park and his home ERA is 4.80. We know too that Boston hits LHP very well. They rank third in the majors in wRC+ (113) versus left-handers this season. Don't forget, Luzardo had that stretch where he gave up 12 ER to Milwaukee then followed it up with 8 more against Toronto.
Opposite Luzardo will be Lucas Giolito who has been in pretty good form as of late. He's 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA, but he did give up 4 ER in his last start. However, that was at Wrigley Field. In his prior 8 starts, Giolito allowed 2 ER or less in 7 games and the Red Sox won 7 out of 8. His road splits are solid - .188 OBA, 43 Ks in 42.1 IP, a 3-1 record, and a 2.55 ERA.
Boston tends to raise their level of play when on the road against teams with a winning record. The Red Sox just play well on the road overall. They are 28-23 ATS in road games this season and they've covered the run line in 11 of their last 15.
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