Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/24/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/24/26

ATHLETICS @ MINNESOTA (MIN -149, 9.5)

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ATHLETICS @ TWINS 7/24/26

Tonight’s matchup at Target Field features the Oakland Athletics (43-59) taking on the Minnesota Twins (51-53). This game is a battle of two teams looking to find their footing in the second half of the season. The Twins enter on a two-game winning streak after a successful series in Cleveland, while the Athletics have struggled recently, losing 13 of their last 15 games.

The pitching matchup features a pair of struggling starters: lefty Jacob Lopez (4-4, 6.64 ERA) for Oakland against the Twins' Zebby Matthews (4-7, 5.40 ERA). With both pitchers prone to giving up runs and both bullpens showing vulnerabilities, this game profiles as a high-scoring environment.

GAME TOTAL PICK

The statistical evidence strongly points toward a high-scoring affair. Both starting pitchers have struggled significantly this season; Jacob Lopez carries a 6.64 ERA, while Zebby Matthews sits at 5.40. Furthermore, the Athletics' pitching staff has a collective ERA of 5.39, which ranks 29th in the league.

News reports highlight that Zebby Matthews has been "getting crushed" lately, owning a 10.54 ERA and 2.19 WHIP over his last three starts. On the other side, Jacob Lopez has allowed 22 earned runs over 33.2 innings in his road appearances this season. With both rotations vulnerable and Target Field playing as a hitter-friendly environment (106 Run factor), the Over is the sharp play.

TWINS ARE THE SIDE PLAY

While both teams have flaws, the Twins hold the structural advantage at home. Minnesota’s offense averages 4.81 runs per game (7th in MLB), and they are facing an Athletics team that has lost 10 of its last 11 road games.

Additionally, Zebby Matthews has been much more effective at home, allowing only 10 earned runs over 32.0 innings in five home starts. The Athletics have been terrible recently, going 2-8 over their last 10 games. Predictive models give the Twins a 56% win probability tonight, making them the clear favorite to secure the victory.

TOP PLAYER PROPS

Tyler Soderstrom is in an elite "smash spot" tonight. He has cleared this 1.5 HRR line in each of his last five games, averaging 3.0 H+R+RBI in that span. News reports indicate he is batting .346 with a .731 SLG and 1.164 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

He also covers 99.2% of Zebby Matthews' pitch mix. Historically, he has feasted on Twins pitching, hitting this over in 71.43% of his 2025 matchups against them while averaging 3.43 H+R+RBI. Given Matthews' recent struggles (10.54 ERA in last 3 starts), Soderstrom is a prime candidate to do damage.

Ryan Jeffers has a significant statistical edge in this matchup. He has hit this Over 0.5 Hits in 9 of his last 10 games and 80% of his last 15. Most importantly, he has dominated Jacob Lopez in their limited history, hitting a home run and averaging 1.2 hits per game in 2025 matchups.

Jeffers also hits the over in 69.57% of his home games this season. Facing a lefty in Lopez, who has a 6.64 ERA, Jeffers' high-contact approach and historical success against this specific pitcher make this a high-probability play.

Shea Langeliers has been a model of consistency for the Athletics' lineup. He has recorded at least one hit in 100% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10. He has been particularly effective against the Twins, hitting this over in 83.33% of his 2025 matchups against them.

Langeliers leads the Athletics with 98 hits and 23 home runs this season. Facing Zebby Matthews, who has allowed a .438 xBA to left-handed hitters recently, Langeliers is well-positioned to extend his hitting streak.

Jacob Wilson has been an offensive spark for the Athletics lately. Over his last 5 games, he has hit this Over 1.5 HRR 80% of the time, averaging a massive 4.0 H+R+RBI per game. His performance against the Twins is particularly noteworthy; in 2025 matchups, he hit this over 66.67% of the time with a mean of 3.67.

He is also 2-for-3 (.667 BA) in his career against Zebby Matthews. With Matthews struggling to find his form, Wilson's recent hot streak makes this a strong value play.

MATCHUP NEWS

Both starters are in "get-well" spots but have shown little to suggest they can shut down opposing lineups. Zebby Matthews is coming off a start where he allowed 8 earned runs in just 3 innings. Jacob Lopez has struggled with command, and his season-long ERA of 6.64 indicates he is a prime target for a Twins offense that ranks 7th in scoring.

The Athletics are missing several key pieces, including Brent Rooker (out for season) and Zack Gelof. The Twins are also dealing with a thinned-out rotation with Pablo López and David Festa on the 60-day IL. This places even more pressure on the bullpens, where Minnesota has a clear edge in efficiency.

Target Field is playing as a hitter-friendly environment this year (103 overall factor), specifically boosting runs (106) and hits (104). This aligns with the expectation of a high-scoring game given the current pitching climate.

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FREE PICK: TWINS ML

Don’t overthink this. Minnesota is one of the top 10 scoring teams in baseball. They have owned the A’s at home too, winning 9 of the last 13 against them when they’ve traveled to Target Field. Jacob Lopez is better than his numbers suggest, but he still doesn’t strike out enough batters (17% K rate) and he walks too many (13% BB rate). The A’s have been awful as of late, losing 13 of their last 15 games. They’ve been horrible on the road too, going 1-10 in their last 11 road games.

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