Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/28/26
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- 1 day ago
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CHICAGO CUBS @ ST. LOUIS (CHC -114, 9)
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CUBS @ CARDINALS 7/28/26
The historic rivalry between the Chicago Cubs (60-46) and the St. Louis Cardinals (53-53) continues tonight at Busch Stadium. After the Cubs secured a convincing 7-3 victory in the series opener, they enter tonight as slight road favorites. This matchup features a battle of right-handers with Colin Rea taking the mound for Chicago against Michael McGreevy for St. Louis.
BEST MONEYLINE BET
The Cubs are the definitive play on the moneyline tonight, primarily driven by the massive gap in current form and offensive production. Chicago has been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning five of their last six road games and eight of their last 12 overall. Their offense has been relentless, scoring 10 or more runs in 13 games this season, a mark surpassed only by the Dodgers and Nationals. The Cubs have averaged 6.4 runs per game since the All-Star break.
While Colin Rea has been generous lately (5.40 ERA over his last 15 starts), the Cubs' defense provides a massive safety net. Chicago leads the majors in Runs Prevented (39) and Outs Above Average (48). They face a Cardinals team that is "hitting the wall," having lost five of their last six at home and eight of their last 10 overall. St. Louis is likely rushing Michael McGreevy into this start, and with the Cardinals' lineup averaging just a 79 wRC+ over the last 30 days, they lack the firepower to keep pace with a surging Cubs squad.
BEST GAME TOTAL BET
Despite the offensive potential of the Cubs, several factors point toward the Under. Busch Stadium is one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the league, suppressing runs by 6% according to the latest park factors. Furthermore, Michael McGreevy has been the most profitable pitcher in the majors to the Under, cashing it in 15 of his 20 starts this season.
The historical head-to-head data supports this trend, as the Under has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. While Rea can be hit hard, the Cardinals' offense is currently in a deep slump, with five of their nine projected starters posting a wRC+ below 70 over the last month. With two top-tier defenses on the field, expect runs to be at a premium. Also, don’t forget that the Cardinals rank in the bottom-3 in scoring at home (3.72).
BEST PLAYER PROPS
Seiya Suzuki is in the midst of an incredible hot streak and is the strongest player prop on the board. Over his last 10 games, he has hit the Over on this 1.5 HRRline in 100% of his outings, averaging 2.9 HRR per game. His consistency extends further back, with a 93.33% hit rate over his last 15 games.
Suzuki has historically performed well at Busch Stadium, hitting the Over in 65.91% of his career games as a visitor. Facing Michael McGreevy, who has allowed at least one home run in six of his last eight starts and struggles with a low 16.6% strikeout rate, Suzuki is perfectly positioned to continue his multi-hit production.
Michael Busch has become a cornerstone of the Cubs' lineup and offers high-probability value tonight. He has recorded at least one hit in 9 of his last 10 games and 16 of his last 20 games. He is currently averaging 1.5 hits per game over his last 10 outings, showing he isn't just squeaking by the line.
Busch has a clear comfort level against St. Louis pitching, hitting the Over on this prop in 71.43% of his matchups against the Cardinals this season. McGreevy’s 5.47 xERA suggests he is due for significant regression, and Busch’s ability to drive the ball into the gaps makes him a safe bet to reach base via a hit tonight.
For those looking for a high-floor play, Nico Hoerner is the answer. Hoerner has hit the Over 0.5 Hits in 8 of his last 10 games, and his season-long hit rate stands at a robust 68.93%. He has been particularly dominant against the Cardinals this season, recording a hit in 85.71% of their head-to-head meetings
Hoerner’s contact-oriented approach is a nightmare for a pitcher like McGreevy, who does not miss many bats. Hoerner is averaging 1.8 hits per game over his last 10 starts, and his speed allows him to turn routine grounders into infield hits. Against a Cardinals defense that allows a .294 BABIP, Hoerner is a lock to put the ball in play and find a hole. It’s pricey at -230, but use it as a parlay piece for better value.
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FREE PICK: CUBS TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5
We mentioned this play on yesterday’s MLB Player Performance. Why? Because the Cubs offense is heating up. Since the All-Star break, the Cubs have scored 7, 7, 11, 3, 1, 11, 6, 10, 6, and 2 runs. If you do the math, that’s an average of 6.4 runs per game. For the season, the Cubs rank 3rd in MLB in scoring, averaging 5.17 runs per game. Tonight, they will face Michael McGreevy, who has a respectable 3.07 ERA but he holds a 5.46 xERA. That signals regression which we have started to see. McGreevy gave up 4 ER in his last start (also at Busch Stadium) against Arizona. McGreevy’s K rate is just 16.3% and he gives up way too much (42% Hard Hit rate) hard contact. The Cubs have gone Over 4.5 runs in 7 of their last 9 games, 13 of their last 20, and in 55% of games this season.
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