Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/29/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/29/26

SEATTLE @ LA DODGERS (LAD -158, 9.5)

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MARINERS @ DODGERS 7/29/26

The Mariners and Dodgers wrap up their short series at Dodger Stadium tonight after Seattle snatched a thrilling 7-6 victory last night. The pitching matchup features Emerson Hancock (6-4, 3.16 ERA) for the Mariners against Eric Lauer (5-5, 4.83 ERA) for the Dodgers, and the contrasts here are striking.

The Dodgers are dealing with a massive injury crisis — Tyler Glasnow, Will Smith, Blake Snell, Edwin Díaz, Gavin Stone, and Brusdar Graterol are all on the 60-day IL, robbing this roster of significant firepower on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, there's buzz around Hancock, with Jeff Passan reporting he's expected to be traded before the August 3rd deadline, which adds a layer of motivation for the young righty to deliver a strong outing.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Mariners present compelling value as underdogs in this spot. Lauer has been a disaster this season with a 6.69 ERA and 1.486 WHIP across 16 starts. His underlying numbers don't offer much hope either — he's allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings and his FIP of 6.11 suggests his struggles are earned.

Current Mariners hitters have seen Lauer well in limited action. Josh Naylor is a perfect 2-for-2 against him, Julio Rodríguez is 2-for-5 with a home run, and the Mariners' lineup has the platoon advantage with multiple left-handed bats against the southpaw Lauer.

The line has moved significantly toward the Dodgers (opened -100 at Polymarket, now -153), but that movement creates value on the other side. The Mariners just punched the Dodgers' ace Justin Wrobleski for 7 runs last night and have momentum.

Hancock has been quietly excellent with a 3.16 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He's facing a Dodgers lineup missing Will Smith, and while Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman remain dangerous, Hancock's command has been elite this season. Plus, most Dodgers have never faced him and LA ranks in the bottom-10 in OPS and ISO vs. RHP in the last 30 days.

TOP PLAYER PROPS

Hancock Over 14.5 Outs is the most reliable prop on the board tonight. Hancock has been a workhorse for Seattle, consistently pitching deep into games. Hancock has hit this Over in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10. His season hit rate is an elite 89.47% across 19 starts, averaging 16.63 outs per start.

As a visitor this season, he has cleared 14.5 outs in 7 of his 9 road starts, averaging 15.67 outs per game away from T-Mobile Park. With reports that Hancock is expected to be traded before the deadline, he has every incentive to showcase his durability and command in what could be one of his final starts for Seattle.

Lauer has pitched well since coming to LA, but he has gone Over 2.5 ER multiple times. He’s actually allowed 3 more ER in 4 of his last 5 starts, despite the Dodgers winning all 5 games. Remember, he’s facing a Mariners lineup that did put up 7 runs last night. 

While current Mariners are only batting .171 against Lauer in his career, that's over a small sample. The Mariners' lineup features dangerous bats like Randy Arozarena (.281 season BA), Julio Rodríguez, and Josh NaylorJosh Naylor, all of whom have seen Lauer before. Lauer's 1.49 WHIP suggests he's allowing baserunners at an alarming rate. Against a Mariners team that's averaging 4.0 runs per game and has shown the ability to break through, the Over 2.5 ER is well-positioned.

Josh Naylor has been one of the most consistent hitters in the Seattle lineup and has a stellar track record against tonight's starter. Naylor has recorded at least one hit in 7 of his last 10 games and 80% of his last 15 games. He's averaging 1.3 hits per game over his last 10 outings.

Naylor is a perfect 2-for-2 against Lauer in his career. That's a small sample, but the contact quality has been there, with a 1.000 batting average and an .882 wOBA in those at-bats. As a visitor this season, Naylor has hit the Over 0.5 Hits 75% of the time, averaging 1.1 hits per game. The Mariners' lineup revolves around him and Arozarena, ensuring he'll get 4-5 plate appearances.

Teoscar Hernández has been producing at a high level at home and is a reliable bet to find a gap in the Seattle defense. Hernández has hit the Over 0.5 Hits  in 80% of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10. He's averaging 1.2 hits per game over his last 5 outings. While his home hit rate sits at 52.78% for the season, his recent form is much stronger. Over his last 15 games, he's averaging 0.87 hits per game but has been trending up significantly in the last week.

Hernández has battled Hancock before, going 1-for-2 with a home run in their only prior meeting. With the Dodgers' lineup missing Will Smith and other key bats, Hernández's role in the middle of the order is even more critical.

If you don’t like the price on Naylor Over 0.5 Hits, consider taking the Over 1.5 HRR. Naylor has hit the Over on this prop in 6 of his last 10 games, averaging 2.1 Hits + Runs + RBIs per game over that span. As a visitor, he hits the Over 48.08% of the time, but when he does hit, he tends to produce, averaging 1.96 combined events per road game.

Being a perfect 2-for-2 against Lauer gives Naylor a strong foundation. If he reaches base multiple times — which his recent form suggests is likely — he'll have ample scoring opportunities in a favorable ballpark.

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FREE PICK: EMERSON HANCOCK OVER 14.5 OUTS

Hancock has some additional incentive to pitch well tonight. It is speculated that the Mariners are going to trade him and he would love to end up on a team that is in strong playoff contention. Hancock has solid numbers this season with a 6-4 record and a 3.16 ERA. He has pitched at least 5 innings (15 outs) in 17 of his 19 starts this season. He recently only completed 1.2 innings against Tampa Bay, but that was the result of being hit in the hand with a batted ball. The only other start where he failed to get to 15 outs was against Washington. That game was at Nationals Park, a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. The Nats got 9 hits and 6 ER off Hancock, who pitched 4 innings. Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers are a bottom-10 team in ISO, OPS, and wRC+ against RHP. The books expect Hancock to get there too as this prop is juiced at -155.

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