Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/13/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/13/26

MILWAUKEE @ LA DODGERS (LAD -149, 8.5)

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BREWERS @ DODGERS 8/13/26

The two best records in the National League collide in a potential playoff preview at 10:10 PM ET. The Milwaukee Brewers (74-47) roll into Los Angeles licking their wounds after a sweep at the hands of the Padres, while the Dodgers (73-48) have quietly stacked three straight wins — though none of them were pretty. This is a fascinating spot with a marquee pitching matchup, a potential injury concern for one of LA's biggest bats, and a total that's been screaming Under all week.

GAME TOTAL

Brewers Under Trend: Milwaukee has gone under in 10 of their last 13 games, a 2-and-7 run across their last nine contests. That's not a blip — that's a team whose offensive profile has shifted.

Head-to-Head: The last four meetings between these clubs have all stayed under the number. In the last 10 completed meetings, the under has cashed 7 times.

Shane Drohan's Track Record: The under is 5-2 in Shane DrohanShane Drohan's last seven starts. He's been a quiet, efficient arm all season.

Dodgers' Scoring Pattern: LA has won three straight but by a combined four runs. This is a team grinding out close games, not bludgeoning opponents. The Dodgers' offense has averaged just 3.6 runs per game over their last eight outings.

MATCHUP ANALYSIS

The pitching matchup sets up beautifully for a low-scoring affair. Drohan brings a tidy 3.87 ERA and 1.25 WHIP into Dodger Stadium, and he's been remarkably consistent — 93 strikeouts in 93 innings with a 3.81 FIP that suggests his ERA is sustainable. On the other side, Roki Sasaki is erratic (4.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) but capable of stringing together scoreless frames when his command is on.

The bullpens are the quiet engine behind this under. Both clubs carry relief groups that miss bats in the middle innings and limit damage with runners on base. Milwaukee's pen has a 71.7% save rate, while LA's relievers have inherited just 35.5% of runners scoring. When both pens are trustworthy, a two-run seventh inning doesn't spiral into a five-run rally.

NEWS & INJURY INFO

The Dodgers' recent wins have been tense, tight affairs — two of their three sweep victories over the Royals came by one run. That's not a team suddenly flipping a switch offensively. Meanwhile, Milwaukee arrives emotionally drained after an 18-7 outscoring in San Diego, a stretch where offenses tend to press and expand the zone. Pressing hitters play right into the hands of two starters who can capitalize on aggressive at-bats.

There's also a potential lineup wrinkle: Freddie Freeman slipped down the stairs in the visitors' dugout Wednesday pursuing a foul popup, reportedly hitting his head and complaining of soreness in his kneecaps, shoulder, hand, and wrist. If he's limited or out, that's a massive chunk of LA's offensive production removed.

WHY BACK THE BREWERS?

Sharp Money: The sharp win percentage for the Brewers sits at 42.56% on the moneyline, but the price has drifted from +110 at open to +130 at Caesars — the market is telling you this is a fair-value dog, not a pushover.

Sasaki's Inconsistency: Roki Sasaki carries a 4.54 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He's been anything but a finished product, and against a Milwaukee lineup that grinds at-bats and works counts, the margin for one mistake inning is real.

Brewers vs. LHP: Milwaukee is a very ordinary 21-18 against left-handed pitching, but that's not the concern here — Sasaki is a righty, and the Brewers' patient approach plays well against a pitcher who nibbles.

Road Warriors: Milwaukee is a sturdy 33-25 on the road this season.

WHY BACK THE DODGERS?

The Dodgers have won four of their last five, but that came after a stunning seven-game skid from July 31 through August 7. This is not a team playing its best baseball. LA's bullpen has been unreliable — Evan Phillips allowed three runs while recording just one out in Tuesday's game — and the offense has been inconsistent, with Roberts lamenting how his star-studded lineup has gotten "bullied" by fastballs.

Freeman's status is the wild card here. He's listed as day-to-day after his dugout stumble, and if he's out, the Dodgers lose their most consistent hitter — a .305 average, 135 hits, and a 10th-percentile strikeout rate that makes him the toughest out in the lineup. Even if he plays, he's likely compromised.

The Brewers, meanwhile, are coming off a sweep but haven't lost four straight since April. This is a proud, talented club that knows how to bounce back. At +130, you're getting a top-tier team at a discount against a flawed favorite.

BEST PLAYER PROPS

Andy Pages Over 0.5 Hits 

Pages is the hottest hitter in this lineup right now, and the matchup against a left-handed starter plays directly into his strengths. Pages has hit the Over in 80% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10, averaging 1.2 and 1.1 hits respectively. Over his last 15 games, he's at 86.67% with a 1.27 average. He's hitting .270 on the season with a 70.59% hit rate over his last 17 games played.

At Dodger Stadium, Pages is hitting .270 with a 68.97% hit rate in 58 home games. Batting from the opposite side of Drohan's left-handed delivery, Pages has the upper hand in this matchup. He's 1-for-3 with a home run against Drohan in his career.

Drohan is a solid pitcher, but he's not an overpowering one — his 9.0 K/9 is respectable but not elite, and he's allowed 88 hits in 93 innings. Pages is an aggressive, contact-oriented hitter who puts the ball in play, and the platoon advantage gives him a real edge. The projection systems love him too — THE BAT X ranks him in the 89th percentile for overall offensive ability.

Shane Drohan Over 4.5 Strikeouts 

Drohan has been a strikeout machine lately, and the plus-money price makes this a sharp value play. Drohan has hit the Over in 80% of his last 5 starts, averaging 6.4 strikeouts. Over his last 10 starts, he's at 70% with a 5.6 average. He's averaging 4.04 strikeouts per start this season with a 43.48% hit rate on the over. In his career, he has 93 strikeouts in 93 innings — a 9.0 K/9 rate that shows genuine swing-and-miss stuff.

LA's lineup strikes out at a 26th-ranked rate in baseball, meaning they're not a particularly disciplined team at the plate. Drohan's 23.8% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging-strike rate suggest his strikeout production is sustainable. The Dodgers' aggressive approach at the plate plays into his hands — they swing early and often, which is exactly what a pitcher with good secondary stuff wants to see. His 67.4% first-pitch strike rate (49th percentile) means he's getting ahead in counts and putting hitters on the defensive.

Drohan has been a revelation for the Brewers since joining the club, and he's shown no signs of slowing down. His 6-4 record with a 3.87 ERA undersells how good he's been — the underlying metrics suggest he's been even better than the surface numbers. Against a Dodgers lineup that could be missing Freeman, his path to 5+ strikeouts is clear.

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FREE PICK: BREWERS F5 +0.5

The big key here is to monitor the situation with Freeman. He might not play tonight and that would be a big loss. He’s batting .417 over his past 19 games. It may bring the rest of the Dodgers down as well and, remember, this is a team that went 1-8 before a not-so-impressive sweep of the Royals. LA is averaging 3.6 runs per game over its last 8. The Brewers were just swept by San Diego and the Dodgers did take 2 of 3 from the Brewers in Milwaukee back in May. Still, they are a 35-25 road team that hits RHP pretty well. They are also 8-1 on the F5 RL (when laying +0.5) in their last 9 games. Check on Freeman and, if he’s out, play the Brewers early.

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