Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/21/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/21/26

PITTSBURGH @ LA DODGERS (LAD -191, 11.5)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB FREE PICKS

PIRATES @ DODGERS 8/21/26

This is a fascinating spot, and the market's telling a clear story. The Dodgers opened as heavy favorites at -225 to -248, but the sharp money is far from unanimous — and there's real value hiding in the player props. Let me break down the best plays.

VALUE ON THE PIRATES

The Dodgers are in a genuine offensive slump. This isn't a narrative — it's a documented trend. Los Angeles is 18-21 since the start of July, and their offense ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball in OPS over that stretch. Manager Dave Roberts has been openly frustrated: "I just don't see the consistent plan of attack, one through nine. This has been four, five, six weeks of below-average production from our offense."

The individual struggles are staggering. Kyle Tucker, making $60 million this year, has been one of the worst qualified hitters in baseball at home — he's gone hitless in 19 at-bats this homestand and was given a game off against Misiorowski. Mookie Betts remains a below-league-average hitter on the year. Freddie Freeman doesn't have an extra-base hit in August. Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman have both struggled this month. The Dodgers have also grounded into more double plays than any team in baseball — a sign of an aging, slow-footed lineup.

The bullpen is a mess. Edwin Díaz, the $69 million closer, has a 12.73 ERA in seven appearances since returning from elbow surgery. He's blown three of his last four save opportunities. Roberts has admitted he has no other options: "Give me another option. I have to have other options. And to be quite honest, none of those guys really are throwing the baseball great." The bullpen ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA since the start of July.

The Pirates' offense is legit. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in runs scored (642), 3rd in batting average (.256), 5th in OBP (.332), and 4th in OPS (.742). This isn't a pushover lineup — it's a top-5 offensive unit that's been productive all season.

The head-to-head history backs the dog. Pittsburgh is 4-6 straight up in the last 10 meetings but has averaged 4.4 runs per game in those contests. The Dodgers' 5.7 runs per game average in those meetings is inflated by blowouts that aren't happening right now. At +213, you're getting better than 2-to-1 on a top-5 offense facing a scuffling Dodgers club with a broken bullpen and a slumping lineup.

THE CONSERVATIVE BET ON THE BUCS

If you want a safer way to play the same thesis, the run line is the sharper number. The Pirates are catching +1.5 at plus money, and the sharp books have them covering at 48.73% — nearly a coin flip on a number that's paying +106.

The Dodgers' bullpen is the single most vulnerable unit in this game. Díaz has blown three of his last four save opportunities, and the relief corps ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA since July. That's a recipe for late-inning collapses — exactly the kind of spot where a +1.5 run line cashes.

The Pirates' offense keeps games close. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in runs scored and 4th in OPS. They're not a team that gets blown out — they're a team that grinds out at-bats and keeps pressure on. In the last 10 meetings, the Pirates have averaged 4.4 runs per game, which is more than enough to cover +1.5 in a game where the Dodgers' offense is scuffling. At +106, you're getting plus money on a number that the sharps see as essentially a coin flip. This is the highest-confidence side on the board.

BEST PLAYER PROPS

Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Bases 

Gonzales has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the past month, and the matchup against Yamamoto sets up well for him to clear this number. The form is undeniable. Gonzales has hit the over on 1.5 bases in 80% of his last 5 games, 80% of his last 10, and 75% of his last 20. He's averaging 1.8 bases over his last 5 games and 1.7 over his last 10. His season average sits at 1.5 bases per game — right at the line — but he's been well above that recently.

The road splits are elite. Gonzales is hitting the over on 1.5 bases in 70.37% of his road games this season, averaging 1.69 bases per game away from home. That's a significant boost from his overall average, and it's exactly the split you want in a road game at Dodger Stadium.

The matchup is favorable. Gonzales is batting .285 this season with a .369 career wOBA against Yamamoto. He's seen this pitcher before and isn't fooled. While Yamamoto has held the Pirates' roster to a .209 wOBA overall, Gonzales is one of the few hitters with real career success against him.

Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Hits 

Lowe has been a hit machine over the past month, and the matchup against Yamamoto is one he's handled well in limited career reps. The form is elite. Lowe has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last 5 games, 80% of his last 10, and 80% of his last 20. He's averaging 1.2 hits over his last 5 games and 1.25 over his last 20. His season average sits at 1.0 hits per game — right at the line — but he's been well above that recently.

The road splits are strong. Lowe is hitting the over on 0.5 hits in 70% of his road games this season, averaging 0.96 hits per game away from home. That's a solid boost from his overall average.

The matchup is favorable. Lowe is batting .253 this season and has a .333 career batting average against Yamamoto in 3 plate appearances. He's one of the few Pirates hitters with real success against the Dodgers' ace.

BOTTOM LINE

The Pirates are the sharpest side of the night. The market's pricing Los Angeles like the pre-slump Dodgers, but the sharp books have Pittsburgh at just 31.88% to win — and the Dodgers' bullpen is a genuine liability. The run line at +1.5 is the highest-confidence play, the moneyline at +213 is the value play, and the player props on Gonzales and Lowe offer the best individual hitter value.

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