Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/23/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/23/26

ATLANTA @ MILWAUKEE (MIL -114, 7.5)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

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BRAVES @ BREWERS 8/23/26

Tonight's Sunday Night Baseball showdown at Journey Bank Ballpark in Williamsport is a fascinating spot, and the market is telling us something important. The Brewers are the best team in baseball by record (81-49) and own the #2 pitching staff in the majors, yet the sharp money is split nearly down the middle — Milwaukee at 51.64% sharp win probability on the moneyline, Atlanta at 48.36%. That's a much tighter number than the public perception of a dominant Brewers club, and it's driven by one thing: the pitching matchup.

PITCHER PROPS

Tyler Mahle — Pitcher Outs Over 15.5 

This is my favorite bet on the board, and it's a bet on the version of Mahle the Braves acquired at the deadline — not the one whose season ERA says 5.13. Over his last six starts, Mahle has been a completely different pitcher: a 2.80 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, a 25.7% strikeout rate, and a 5.9% walk rate across 35 1/3 innings. That's ace-level command and swing-and-miss stuff, and it's exactly the profile you want when asking a starter to work deep into a game.

The form data backs the narrative. Mahle has gone over 15.5 outs in 100% of his last 5 starts and 70% of his last 10, averaging 18.2 outs over the last five. He's also hit the over in his only career start against Milwaukee, going 18 outs. The matchup is favorable too — Mahle has dominated this Brewers lineup historically, holding them to a .178 batting average and a .246 wOBA across 54 career plate appearances, with a 27.8% strikeout rate. Christian Yelich is just 3-for-19 (.158) against him, and he's punched out eight times in that sample.

The one concern is the venue — Journey Bank Ballpark has a short left-field fence (323 feet, among the five shortest in MLB), which could lead to early homers and a quick hook. But Mahle's recent command profile mitigates that risk, and at +115 plus-money, the value is on the over.

Shane Drohan — Pitcher Outs Under 14.5 

The fade on Drohan is the other side of the same coin, and it's a bet on disruption of routine. The Brewers used Drohan out of the bullpen on August 18th — a two-inning relief appearance — and that's a meaningful red flag for a starter's workload. Prior to that relief stint, he gave up three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Dodgers and six earned runs in five innings against the Twins. That's 11 earned runs over his last 10 1/3 innings of starting work, and now he's being asked to flip back to a starting role on short rest.

The form data is telling. Drohan has gone under 14.5 outs in 45% of his last 20 starts, and his season average is just 12.04 outs per start — well below this line. At home, it's even worse: he's averaging only 10.81 outs per start in 16 home appearances, going under this line 62.5% of the time. His 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP look respectable on the surface, but the underlying workload numbers suggest he's not a deep-innings guy, especially coming off that relief appearance.

At +145, you're getting paid to fade a pitcher who's averaging barely 12 outs per start against a line of 14.5. The Braves' patient, powerful lineup (609 runs, 167 homers, both top-8 in MLB) should work counts and get him out of there early.

HITTER PROPS 

Andrew Vaughn — Hits Over 0.5 

Vaughn is the hottest hitter in this game, and the matchup against Mahle is a genuine edge. In his career against the Braves' right-hander, Vaughn is 2-for-3 with a .667 batting average and a .618 wOBA — he's seeing the ball exceptionally well against this specific arm. And he's been locked in recently: he's hit the over on this line in 100% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10, averaging 1.2 hits per game over the last five.

The season-long numbers are strong too. Vaughn is hitting .303 on the season — 13th in all of baseball — with a .346 BABIP that suggests he's been a bit unlucky on balls in play, not the other way around. His 14.9% strikeout rate is elite, and his 82.3% contact rate means he's putting the ball in play constantly. Against a pitcher he's already owned, in a hitter-friendly Little League Classic environment, this is about as safe a single-hit prop as tonight's slate offers.

Michael Harris II — Hits Over 0.5

Harris is the engine of this Atlanta lineup, and he's been on an absolute tear. He's hit the over on this line in 100% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10, averaging 1.8 hits per game over the last five — that's a guy who's seeing beach balls. He's also 100% against Milwaukee this season, going 1.5 hits per game in four meetings, and he's a perfect 4-for-4 in his career against Drohan.

The season profile is elite. Harris is hitting .293 — 22nd in MLB — with a .290 expected batting average that confirms the production is real. His 137 hits rank 13th in baseball, and he's been especially dangerous on the road, hitting .294 away from Atlanta. Against a lefty like Drohan who's struggled with command recently, Harris's contact skills (77.8% contact rate) and speed should translate into at least one knock almost every time.

Jackson Chourio — Hits Over 0.5 

Chourio is the most dangerous bat in this Milwaukee lineup, and he's been remarkably consistent at getting at least one hit. He's hit the over on this line in 80% of his last 5 games and 70% of his last 10, and he's at 73.68% for the season — one of the highest single-hit rates on the Brewers. At home, he's even better: 73.47% hit rate in 49 home games.

The matchup against Mahle is solid too. Chourio is 1-for-3 (.333) in his career against the Braves' right-hander, and his .278 season average with a .342 BABIP suggests he's been slightly unlucky on balls in play. The short porch in left field at Journey Bank Ballpark only helps a hitter with Chourio's power and pull tendencies. At -230, you're paying a premium, but for a guy who gets a hit in nearly three-quarters of his games, it's a fair price. Use it as a parlay piece.

Joey Ortiz — Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 1.5 

Ortiz gives me a plus-money shot at a guy who's been quietly productive in the middle of this Brewers order. He's hit the over on this line in 80% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10, averaging 3.4 combined hits, runs, and RBIs over the last five — that's a guy who's consistently involved in the offense. At home, he's at 36.36% for the season, but his recent form is what matters here.

The matchup is the key. Ortiz is 0-for-2 in his career against Mahle, but that's a tiny sample, and his .249 season average with a 91.91 wRC+ suggests he's a solid, not spectacular, contributor. The value here is the price — at +125, you're getting plus-money on a guy who's been clearing this line in four of his last five games. If the Brewers get to Mahle early (and the short porch helps), Ortiz should be right in the middle of the action.

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FREE PICKS: TYLER MAHLE OVER 15.5 OUTS & SHANE DROHAN UNDER 15.5 OUTS

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