Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/24/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/24/26

PITTSBURGH @ SAN DIEGO (SD -108, 7.5)

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PIRATES @ PADRES 8/24/26

This is a fascinating spot at Petco Park — a classic "better starter vs. better team" clash where the market is essentially a coin flip. The Pirates are slight road favorites at -110, but the sharp model has this one dead even at 50.24% for San Diego. The real edge here is in the player props and the run line, where the underlying numbers tell a much clearer story than the moneyline. 

FULL GAME ANALYSIS

The sharp model has this one essentially dead even at 50.24% for the Padres, and the market has moved significantly toward Pittsburgh since open — the Padres opened at -126 and have been bet down to -105, while the Pirates opened at +104 and have been pushed out to -110. That's usually a clear signal where the sharp money is landing.

The Matchup: This is a battle of two very different profiles. Braxton Ashcraft has been dealing lately — he's given up just two runs over his last 17 innings, going at least eight innings in both starts, including eight innings of one-run, no-walk ball against Detroit. His 97-mph average fastball is sizzling, his strikeout rate sits at a solid 26.4%, and his .285 expected wOBA allowed backs up the recent success. But Robbie Ray's 3.20 ERA is the shinier number, and the underlying metrics tell a different story — his 4.59 xERA and FIP north of 4.00 suggest he's been getting away with more than he should.

The Real Edge — Pittsburgh hasn’t been hitting lefties all that well. The number that anchors this entire game is Pittsburgh's 13-29 record against left-handed pitching, a .310 winning percentage. Against right-handers, they're 50-40 (.556). That 24-percentage-point swing tells you these are essentially two different teams depending on who's on the mound. Ray is a lefty. 

Add Petco Park's 0.92 runs factor and 0.88 home run factor, the marine layer that keeps the ball in the yard, and you have a suppressive environment compounding an already unfavorable matchup for a Pittsburgh lineup that just got swept in three straight at Dodger Stadium and traveled cross-country to face this.

The Context: San Diego comes in white-hot — 21-7 since July 24, with postseason odds that have jumped to 70.9%. Fernando Tatis Jr. just went 2-for-4 with two home runs and four RBI in Saturday's sweep of Minnesota, carrying a 1.521 OPS over the last seven days and 12 home runs since the All-Star break, the most in the majors. The Padres are also 58-0 when leading entering the 9th inning this season, tied for the best mark in baseball. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's bullpen has blown 20 of 45 save chances this season, and their relievers have a save percentage of just 55.6%.

RUN LINE ANALYSIS

If you believe in the Padres to win, the run line at plus money is the aggressive way to play it — and the sharp model actually favors the Padres to cover the -1.0 line at 57.81%.

Why the Run Line Works: The Padres have been winning games by multiple runs all season — they're 58-0 when leading entering the 9th, and they've been blowing teams out during this 21-7 stretch. Tatis is the hottest hitter in baseball right now (last week he went 12-for-25 with 4 HRs and 11 RBIs), and the Padres' offense has been clicking on all cylinders. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's bullpen has been a disaster — 20 blown saves in 45 chances, a 55.6% save percentage, and a 34.4% inherited runner scoring rate. When Ray exits this game, the Pirates should be able to tack on runs against a shaky Pittsburgh relief corps.

The Risk: Ashcraft has been dealing, and the Pirates have been competitive in close games. But at +210, you're getting paid well above even money to back the clearly hotter team to win by two. BetRivers is offering the best price at +210.

GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS

Under 7.5 Total 

The sharp model has the under at 52.16%, and the park factors make this the cleanest under on the board. Petco Park is one of the strongest run-suppressors in baseball — a 0.92 runs factor and 0.88 home run factor, with the marine layer keeping balls in the yard. The Padres' pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in just 4% of innings played this season, tied for the second-lowest mark in MLB. Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .265 against Padres pitchers, tied for the fourth-lowest in baseball.

Both pitchers are capable of keeping this low-scoring. Ashcraft has been dominant lately — two runs over his last 17 innings — and Ray, despite his underlying metrics, has a 3.20 ERA. The Pirates have struck out in 24% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, tied for the fourth-highest in MLB, and Ashcraft's 26.4% strikeout rate should keep them off balance. On the other side, the Padres' offense has been hot, but Petco's suppression should keep the total in check.

The Padres have been scoring in bunches lately, and Tatis is on an absolute tear. But the total at 7.5 is a low bar, and the sharp model's 52.16% lean on the under aligns with the park factors and the quality of both starters.

PLAYER PROP ANALYSIS

Braxton Ashcraft Over 4.5 Strikeouts 

This is the sharpest line on the board tonight, and it's not close. Ashcraft has been a strikeout machine all season, and the matchup sets up perfectly. Over his last five games, Ashcraft has hit the Over on this 4.5 strikeout line in 80% of contests, averaging 5.8 strikeouts. Over his last 10, he's at 80% with a 6.2 average, and over his last 20, he's at 85% with a 6.35 average. On the road, he's been even better — hitting the over 84.62% of the time with a 6.23 average.

Ashcraft has 159 strikeouts in 149.1 innings this season, good for a 9.58 K/9. His strikeout rate sits at 26.4%, and he's been pounding the zone with a 97-mph fastball. He's also been pitching deep into games — eight innings in each of his last two starts — which gives him plenty of opportunities to rack up punchouts.

The Padres have struck out 1,056 times this season, the 19th-most in baseball. Ashcraft has faced this exact San Diego roster just twice in his career, but he's already struck out one of them (Jake Cronenworth) in a single plate appearance. The Padres' 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is right in line with where Ashcraft thrives.

Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Hits

Lowe has been one of the most consistent hitters in the Pirates' lineup all season, and he's been especially productive on the road. Over his last five games, Lowe has hit the Over on this 0.5 hits line in 80% of contests, averaging 1.2 hits. Over his last 10, he's at 80% with a 1.1 average, and over his last 20, he's at 80% with a 1.1 average. On the road, he's been even better — hitting the Over 71.15% of the time with a 0.98 average. Lowe is hitting .254 with a .291 on-base percentage and 122 hits in 536 plate appearances this season. He's been a consistent presence in the middle of the Pirates' order.

Ray has held Lowe to just 2-for-15 in his career with a 46.7% strikeout rate, which is a concern. But Lowe has hit the over in 100% of his games against the Padres this season (3 games, 1.33 average), and he's been too consistent on the road to fade. The 46.7% strikeout rate is scary, but Lowe's 80% hit rate over the last 20 games suggests he's seeing the ball well right now.

Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Hits

Cronenworth has been one of the Padres' most consistent offensive weapons all season, and he's been especially productive at home. Over his last five games, Cronenworth has hit the Over on this 0.5 hits line in 60% of contests, averaging 0.8 hits. Over his last 10, he's at 80% with a 1.1 average, and over his last 20, he's at 75% with a 1.0 average. At home, he's been even better — hitting the over 55.26% of the time with a 0.71 average.

Cronenworth is hitting .227 with a .307 slugging percentage and 47 hits in 264 at-bats this season. He's been a steady presence in the Padres' lineup. Ashcraft has faced Cronenworth just once in his career and struck him out, but that's a tiny sample. Cronenworth has hit the over in 66.67% of his games against the Pirates this season (3 games, 1.0 average), and he's been too consistent at home to fade.

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