Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/30/26
- rbowe7447
- 2 days ago
- 7 min read
CINCINNATI @ CHICAGO CUBS (CHC -134, 9)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
COACH RICK MLB FREE PICKS
REDS @ CUBS 8/30/26
The Cubs are the clear favorite here, and for good reason — they're the best offensive team in baseball facing a Reds club that just got shelled 17-5 in this same ballpark yesterday. But the pitching matchup flips the script in some interesting ways, and there's real value hiding in the player prop market tonight.
THE BIG PICTURE: WHY CHICAGO IS FAVORED
The Cubs enter as roughly -135 favorites on the moneyline, and the sharp money agrees — the sharp win percentage sits at 56.19% for Chicago. That's not a massive edge, but it's a real one, and it's rooted in a season-long offensive gap that's hard to ignore.
Team Runs (Rank) HR (Rank) OPS (Rank) wOBA (Rank) wRC+ (Rank)
Cubs 703 (2nd) 179 (4th) .761 (1st) .334 (1st) 113.35 (1st)
Reds 558 (23rd) 177 (6th) .701 (23rd) .309 (24th) 91.46 (30th)
The Cubs are the No. 1 offense in baseball by OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. The Reds are dead last in wRC+ at 91.46 — meaning they're roughly 9% below league average offensively. Chicago scores 145 more runs on the season. That's a chasm.
But here's where it gets interesting: the Reds are throwing Chase Burns, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.77 ERA ranks in the 85th percentile, his FIP of 3.11 is in the 86th, and he's striking out 10.57 batters per nine. The Cubs are countering with Shota Imanaga, who's been solid but far more hittable — 3.78 ERA, 4.61 FIP, and a home run rate (1.86 HR/9) that ranks in the 13th percentile. That's a red flag against a Reds team that hits the fourth-most homers in baseball.
WHO WINS TONIGHT?
The Cubs win, but it's closer than the market suggests. The sharp moneyline percentage gives Chicago 56.19%, and the run line sharp data is fascinating — the Reds actually hold a 53.03% sharp edge against the spread at +1.5. That tells me the sharps see this as a tight, low-scoring game where Burns keeps Cincinnati in it.
The total is set at 8.5, and the sharp lean is on the Under at 52.6%. That aligns perfectly with the pitching matchup: Burns is elite, Imanaga is at Wrigley where he's been solid (3.86 ERA at home), and the park factors at Wrigley suppress runs overall (97 park factor, 94 for runs specifically).
TOP PLAYER PROPS
Chase Burns Over 14.5 Pitcher Outs
This is one of the best bets on the board tonight. Burns has been an absolute workhorse, and the numbers back it up in a big way. Over his last 20 games, he's gone Over 14.5 outs 95% of the time, averaging 16.7 outs per start. Over his last 15, it's 93.33% at 16.13 outs. Even in his last 10, he's at 90% with a 15.9 average. The guy is consistently pitching deep into games.
On the road specifically, he's gone Over this line in 90.91% of his starts, averaging 16.45 outs. That's not a small sample either — 11 road starts this season. The projection has him at 15.12 outs tonight, which clears the line. And here's the kicker: the Reds are 17-8 against the spread in Burns' starts this season, and they're 5-1 in his six starts as a moneyline underdog. When Burns is on the mound, games stay close, and he stays in the game.
Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 Strikeouts
This is a sharp fade on Imanaga's strikeout prop, and the data is overwhelming. Over his last 20 games, Imanaga has gone Under 5.5 strikeouts 80% of the time. Same story over his last 15 and last 10 — 80% in both windows. His season hit rate on the Under is 73.08%, and his average sits at just 5.54 K/9.
At home, it's even more pronounced — he's gone Under in 66.67% of his home starts, averaging 5.73 strikeouts. The projection has him at 6.12, but the actual performance data says he's been falling short of that number consistently.
The Reds strike out a lot (27.1% team rate), which is the counterargument. But Imanaga's strikeout rate has been declining, and the Reds' aggressive approach against lefties — Elly De La CruzElly De La Cruz is hitting .323 against lefties this year — suggests they'll be putting the ball in play.
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits
This is a "pay the juice" spot, but the hit rate justifies it. De La Cruz has recorded a hit in 100% of his last 5 games and 90% of his last 10. His season hit rate is 69.83%, and he's averaging 1.08 hits per game. Against the Cubs specifically in 2026, he's hitting .778 with a 1.44 average over 9 games — that's 7 hits in 9 games against Chicago this year.
The lefty matchup is the real story here. De La Cruz is hitting .323 against left-handed pitching this season with a .402 BABIP. Imanaga is a lefty, and while he's been tough on lefties overall (4.83 ERA vs LHB), De La Cruz's career numbers against Imanaga are rough — just 1 hit in 14 career plate appearances.
But here's the thing: that career sample is small, and De La Cruz's current form against lefties is elite. He's also hitting .251 on the road this year, and Wrigley's park factor for hits is 95 (slightly pitcher-friendly), but De La Cruz's speed turns routine grounders into infield hits. The projection has him at 1.04 hits tonight, and his 77.78% hit rate against the Cubs in 2026 is the strongest signal on the board.
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 Hits
Stewart is the hottest hitter in this series, and the numbers are staggering. He's recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and 4 of his last 5, averaging 1.4 hits per game over the last 10. His season hit rate is 70.37%, and he's averaging 1.01 hits per game overall.
Against the Cubs in 2026, he's hitting .889 with a 1.22 average over 9 games — that's 8 hits in 9 games. He's also hitting .269 on the road this year and .289 against lefties.
The Imanaga matchup is the cherry on top. Stewart is 3-for-6 career against Imanaga with a home run and a .639 wOBA. That's a small sample, but it's a positive one, and it aligns with his overall success against lefties this season. Stewart also leads NL rookies in homers (30) and RBIs (104), and he homered in yesterday's game. The kid is seeing the ball like a beach ball right now.
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 RBIs
This is the value play of the night — a plus-money bet on a hitter who's been driving in runs at an elite clip.
Stewart has an RBI in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10, averaging 1.2 and 1.3 RBIs respectively. His season RBI rate is 41.48%, and he's averaging 0.75 RBIs per game.
Against the Cubs in 2026, he's driven in a run in 44.44% of games, and his 1.33 average against Chicago is well above his season mark. He's also hitting .289 against lefties this year, and Imanaga's home run problem (1.86 HR/9, 13th percentile) is a real vulnerability.
Stewart's 104 RBIs lead all NL rookies, and he's been the Reds' most consistent run producer all season. At +152, you're getting a hitter in peak form against a pitcher who gives up hard contact.
Alex Bregman Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
Bregman has been a run-production machine for the Cubs, and this prop is priced right. He's gone Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs in 7of his last 10 games, averaging 1.9 combined. His season rate is 53.03%, and he's averaging 1.13 per game.
Against the Reds in 2026, he's been even better — 88.89% hit rate with a 2.0 average over 9 games. That's 8 of 9 games where he's contributed at least one run or RBI against Cincinnati this year.
Bregman's season splits show he's been better on the road (49.25% at home vs. his overall 53.03%), but the Reds' pitching staff has been a favorable matchup all season. Cincinnati's team ERA is 4.58 (24th), their FIP is 4.66 (26th), and their WHIP is 1.42 (28th). This is a bad pitching staff, and Bregman is a professional hitter who feasts on bad pitching.
KEY STORYLINES TO WATCH
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the MVP frontrunner. He hit three homers and drove in six runs yesterday, and he's now a -1100 favorite for NL MVP. He's batting .282/.377/.567 with 36 homers and 32 steals. He's the best player on the field tonight, and he's a major reason the Cubs' offense is so dangerous.
The Reds are banged up. Hunter Greene, Spencer Steer, Michael Toglia, and Ke'Bryan Hayes are all on the IL. That's a depleted roster facing the best offense in baseball.
Burns is the great equalizer. The Reds' pitching staff is bad overall (4.58 ERA, 24th), but Burns has been the exception. His 2.77 ERA and 10.57 K/9 make him a legitimate ace, and he's the reason this game stays competitive.
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FREE PICK: CUBS ML
Cubs win, but it's a grind. The sharp moneyline percentage (56.19%) and the Reds' 53.03% sharp edge against the spread at +1.5 tell the same story: Chicago wins a close game. Burns keeps the Reds in it, but the Cubs' offense is too deep and too good to be held down all night.
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.
