Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, HR Derby 7/13/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, HR Derby 7/13/26

MLB ALL-STAR GAME: HOME RUN DERBY

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB FREE PICKS

HOME RUN DERBY 7/13/26

The 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby is set to take place tonight at 8:00 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. This year’s event features a significant shift in format, moving away from the traditional timed rounds to a swing-based system. This change is designed to prioritize power and skill over pure stamina, which should favor the heavy hitters who can maintain their mechanics without the pressure of a ticking clock.

The field is a fascinating mix of established superstars, local favorites, and "Statcast darlings" making their debut on the national stage. With the event being held in Philadelphia, the atmosphere will be electric, particularly for the two Phillies representatives who are among the betting favorites.

HR DERBY ODDS

Kyle Schwarber +300

Junior Caminero +425

Munetaka Murakami +500

Jac Caglianone +700

Jordan Walker +800

Bryce Harper +800

Ben Rice +850

Willson Contreras +1400

THE FAVORITE

Kyle Schwarber is the definitive pick to win tonight. He currently leads the Major Leagues with 32 home runs and possesses a .562 slugging percentage, the sixth-best mark in baseball. His familiarity with Citizens Bank Park is a massive statistical advantage; 19 of his 32 homers this season have come at home, and his 122 career home runs at this venue rank fourth all-time in the stadium's history.

Schwarber’s power profile is perfectly suited for the new swing-based format. Unlike the timed format where his high-effort swing could lead to fatigue, the swing-based system allows him to maximize his elite exit velocity on every attempt. He finished second in the majors last year with 56 home runs, proving he has the consistent long-ball production required to navigate the multi-round bracket.

Local narratives are heavily in Schwarber's favor. After losing to his teammate Bryce Harper in the 2018 finals (while Schwarber was with the Nationals), the "return the favor" storyline is prominent. Schwarber is built for this specific park, and with the home crowd behind him, he is the most logical choice to navigate the first round and dominate the bracket.

THE VALUE PICK

If you are looking for the best combination of talent and odds, Junior Caminero is the play. Caminero is currently fourth in the majors with 28 home runs and is on pace for his second consecutive 40-homer season. Most impressively, he has been the hottest hitter in the field recently, mashing 15 of his 28 home runs over his last 37 games.

Caminero has the "revenge" factor working for him as well. He reached the finals in 2025, narrowly losing to Cal Raleigh 18-15. That experience is invaluable in a Derby setting, as he already understands how to pace himself through the rounds. His recent surge suggests his timing is perfect heading into the break.

Analysts have noted that Caminero "flipped the switch" in June. His ability to hit home runs in bunches makes him a dangerous out in the new format. While he doesn't have the home-field advantage of the Phillies duo, his pure power numbers and previous Derby success make him a top-tier contender who is arguably undervalued by the market.

THE NARRATIVE PICK

You can never count out a former champion, especially one playing in front of his home fans. Bryce Harper won the Derby in 2018 and enters tonight with 20 home runs and a .497 slugging percentage. While his raw home run total is lower than Schwarber’s, Harper’s experience in this specific event is unmatched in the current field.

Harper’s swing is iconic and efficient. In a swing-based format, his ability to "sell out" for distance and height without worrying about a clock could play to his strengths. He has already proven he can win a Derby in his home park (doing so in D.C. in 2018), and the Philadelphia faithful will undoubtedly provide a massive psychological boost.

Harper is one of only two participants with a previous Derby crown (2018). News reports highlight that his experience alone makes him a favorite. While he had a "solid but unspectacular" 2025, his 2026 campaign has seen a resurgence in power. Winning a second title in his second "home" city would be a historic achievement that fits the magnitude of the first-ever Derby broadcast on Netflix.

THE LONGSHOT

Ben Rice is the statistical sleeper of the tournament. The Yankees first baseman is currently third in the majors with 29 home runs and boasts a staggering .599 slugging percentage—second only to Yordan Alvarez. As a first-time All-Star and Derby participant, he lacks the experience of Harper or Schwarber, but his efficiency metrics are elite. If the veterans falter, Rice has the pure slugging ability to pull off an upset.

THE STATCAST DARLING

Making his Derby debut, Caglianone is the player the "nerds" are watching. Despite the Royals' struggles, Caglianone has been a bright spot with 15 homers and a .461 slugging percentage. He is a leader in Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Percentage, and Hard Hit rate. In a format that rewards quality of contact over quantity of swings, Caglianone’s ability to punish the ball could see him advance deep into the bracket.

Note: Munetaka Murakami is returning from a Grade 2 hamstring strain and was only activated this past Friday. While his 20 homers in 57 games are impressive, his health is a major question mark in a competition that still requires significant physical exertion.

Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: JAC CAGLIANONE TO MAKE THE FINALS (+300)

As mentioned above, Caglianone is the “Statcast darling” with all sorts of numbers that create a buzz in tonight’s HR Derby. Caglianone only has 15 home runs this season, but he absolutely crushes the ball. He leads MLB in exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel percentage. In a format tonight that values quality contact over the sheer number of swings, Caglianone has as good a shot as any at making the final.

Coach Rick Day Pass $49

BUY NOW

Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.