Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 9/9/26
NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE (SEA -3, 44.5)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
COACH RICK NFL FREE PICKS
PATRIOTS @ SEAHAWKS 9/9/26
Football is officially back, and we've got a Super Bowl LX rematch to kick off the 2026 season. The defending champion Seahawks host the Patriots at Lumen Field tonight, and the sharp money has been telling a clear story all day. Let's break down who wins and where the value lives.
THE PICK: WHO WINS?
The consensus moneyline has Seattle at -173 (63.4% implied), while New England sits at +150 (40.0% implied). The sharp model is even more bullish: Seattle at 61.2% to New England's 38.8%.
Here's the deeper context. Seattle was the #1 scoring defense in football last season, allowing just 17.18 points per game, and they return the core of that unit. They ranked 1st in yards per play allowed (5.17), 1st in yards per carry allowed (3.74), and 2nd in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.57). This is a defense that held the Patriots to 13 points in the Super Bowl and sacked Drake Maye six times.
The Patriots did upgrade their offense — adding A.J. Brown via trade and Romeo Doubs in free agency — but they're breaking in new pieces against the best defense in football on the road in Week 1. New England's offensive line was a disaster in the playoffs, allowing Maye to be sacked at least five times in each of their four postseason games. Seattle's front four, led by DeMarcus Lawrence, should feast again.
The head-to-head history is damning for New England: the Patriots are 0-2 straight up in their last two meetings with Seattle, and the Seahawks have won both by an average of 29.0 to 25.0. In Super Bowl rematches since the 1970 merger, the Super Bowl winner is 8-2 straight up and against the spread in the following season's rematch.
BETTING THE SPREAD
The consensus spread now has the Seahawks at -3, and the sharp model gives Seattle a 51.96% chance of covering. The line has actually shortened from -3.5, which is interesting — the market is telling you this could be a closer game than the Super Bowl was.
But here's the thing: the sharp model still has Seattle covering at a slight edge, and the historical trends are overwhelmingly in their favor. Teams that lose the Super Bowl are 6-20 against the spread in Week 1 the following season, including 3-13 ATS on the road. That's a brutal trend for New England.
The Seahawks were 6-2 at home last season, and they're breaking in a new offensive coordinator in Brian Fleury, but they have the best defense in football to lean on while the offense finds its rhythm. Seattle's run game should be effective against a Patriots defense that ranked 13th in yards per carry allowed (4.21), and the Seahawks ranked 3rd in carries per game last season (29.82).
GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS
The consensus total has moved from 45.5 at open to 44.5 at close, and the sharp model has it as a true coin flip at 50/50. But the plus-EV research is screaming Under: the Under 44.5 at HardRock carries a 1.21% expected value, and the Under 46.5 at BetRivers carries a 1.03% EV
Here's the case. Both defenses are elite — Seattle was #1 in scoring defense (17.18 PPG allowed) and New England was #4 (18.82 PPG allowed). The Patriots ranked 3rd in plays allowed (57.18 per game) and 6th in yards allowed (321.35 per game), while Seattle was 1st in yards per play allowed (5.17).
Week 1 unders have been very profitable in recent years, and this matchup has all the ingredients: two top-tier defenses, a Patriots offense breaking in new receivers, and a Seahawks offense with a new coordinator. The Super Bowl produced 42 combined points, and this game should land in a similar range.
BEST PLAYER PROPS
Drake Maye Over 259.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115)
Over his last 5 games, Maye has cleared 259.5 passing + rushing yards 40% of the time, averaging 247.6 per game. But over his last 10, he's at 60% with a 272.9 average. Over his last 15, he's at 73.33% with a 279.33 average. And over his last 20, he's at 75% with a 277.6 average.
The context here is critical. Maye's running ability was a huge part of his Year 2 breakout — he averaged 29.0 rushing yards per game through two seasons, and he ran more in losses (33.0 yards per game) than in wins (25.1). In the playoffs, he went for rushing outputs of 66, 10, 65 and 37 yards in his four games, including 37 against Seattle in the Super Bowl.
Against an elite Seattle defense that will likely put New England in a negative game script, Maye should be scrambling early and often. His projection is 250.32 total yards, and the line at 259.5 is very close to that number. But the recent form — 75% hit rate over the last 20 games — suggests he's been consistently clearing this threshold.
Romeo Doubs Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Doubs is the sneaky value play in this game, and the form data is strong. Over his last 5 games, Doubs has cleared 35.5 receiving yards 80% of the time, averaging 61.2 yards per game. Over his last 10, he's at 60% with a 49.8 average. His season hit rate sits at 64.71% with a 49.88 average.
The road splits are where this gets interesting. Doubs is averaging 57.33 yards per game as a visitor with a 77.78% hit rate over 9 road games. That's significantly better than his home numbers.
The context: Doubs is one of two new receivers New England added this offseason (along with A.J. Brown), and he should see plenty of targets against a Seattle secondary that's banged up. The Seahawks are missing Ty Okada and possibly Nick Emmanwori, and they'll be starting a practice squad safety. Doubs' projection is 41.86 yards, which is well above the 35.5 line.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
JSN is the clear WR1 for Seattle, and the form data says he's due for a big night at home. Over his last 5 games, Smith-Njigba has cleared 81.5 receiving yards 40% of the time, averaging 71.0 yards per game. But over his last 10, he's at 60% with an 84.6 average. Over his last 15, he's at 73.33% with a 97.2 average. And over his last 20, he's at 75% with a 99.6 average.
The home splits are elite. Smith-Njigba is averaging 97.2 yards per game at home with an 80% hit rate over 10 home games. His projection is 91.21 yards, which is well above the 81.5 line.
The context: JSN was the engine of Seattle's passing attack last season, and he should be the primary beneficiary of Sam Darnold's continued development. The Seahawks' offense will need to throw to keep pace with a Patriots defense that ranked 6th in yards allowed, and JSN is the clear first read. One of the Seahawks Wire predictions has him catching 8 balls for 113 yards and a touchdown.
A.J. Brown Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Brown is the Patriots' new WR1, and the form data says he's ready to make an immediate impact.
Over his last 5 games, Brown has cleared 62.5 receiving yards 60% of the time, averaging 65.8 yards per game. Over his last 10, he's at 60% with a 75.4 average. His season hit rate sits at 50% with a 64.25 average.
The road splits are solid — Brown is averaging 69.0 yards per game as a visitor with a 66.67% hit rate over 9 road games. His projection is 65.97 yards, which is just above the 62.5 line.
The context: Brown is the biggest addition to New England's offense this offseason, and he should see a heavy target share against a Seattle secondary that's missing key pieces. The Seahawks are without Ty Okada and possibly Nick Emmanwori, and they'll be starting a practice squad safety. Brown's size and physicality should create mismatches against Seattle's depleted secondary.
Cooper Kupp Over 2.5 Receptions (-129)
Kupp is the veteran safety blanket in Seattle's offense, and the form data says he's a lock to see targets.
Over his last 5 games, Kupp has cleared 2.5 receptions 60% of the time, averaging 3.6 catches per game. Over his last 10, he's at 60% with a 3.3 average. His season hit rate sits at 52.63% with a 3.26 average.
The home splits are strong — Kupp is averaging 3.3 receptions per game at home with a 60% hit rate over 10 home games. His projection is 2.92 receptions, which is above the 2.5 line.
The context: Kupp is the reliable slot option in Seattle's offense, and he should see plenty of short-to-intermediate targets against a Patriots defense that ranked 24th in completion percentage allowed (66.41%). With JSN drawing the top coverage, Kupp should feast underneath.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Seahawks are the better team on both sides of the ball, they're at home on banner night, and the historical trends are overwhelmingly in their favor. Seattle's defense was the best in football last season, and they should be ahead of a Patriots offense breaking in new receivers. The Super Bowl winner is 8-2 straight up and against the spread in Week 1 rematches since 1970.
The player props are where the value is tonight. Maye's rushing ability gives him a high floor for total yards, Doubs and A.J. Brown should feast against a depleted Seattle secondary, and JSN is the clear WR1 at home. If you're building a parlay, Seahawks ML + Under 44.5 + JSN Over 81.5 is a strong foundation.
One thing to watch: the Seahawks are missing several key defensive pieces (Ty Okada, Terrion Arnold, Zach Charbonnet), and Nick Emmanwori is questionable. If Emmanwori can't go, Seattle's secondary gets even thinner, which could open things up for the Patriots' new-look passing attack.
Get free NFL Picks and NFL Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 NFL schedule from the YLose.com crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert NFL handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the NFL betting community the best NFL free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best NFL moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.
FREE PICK: JASON MYERS OVER 1.5 FGS
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.
