Rays vs Red Sox Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/10/25

TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON (TB -115, 9.5)

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Rays vs Red Sox Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/10/25

RAYS @ RED SOX 7/10/25

The Tampa Bay Rays play the first game of a four-game set against the Boston Red Sox tonight in Beantown. It's the first game of the final series before the All-Star break on the diamond between two American League East teams hoping to finish with some momentum.

In an attempt to avoid a sweep, Tampa Bay ended a three-game set against the Tigers in the Motor City on Wednesday. Tuesday night, the Rays lost the middle game of the set 4-2 and then beat the Tigers last night 7-3. Boston got the sweep as they ended a three-game set against the Rockies at home with a 10-2 win yesterday. The Red Sox have a 4-2 lead in the season series after winning two of three games at home in the most recent set, which took place from June 9–11.

Tampa Bay beat the Tigers on the road on Wednesday, giving them just their third win in the last 10 games. The Rays are now four games behind the Blue Jays for the top spot in the AL East going into Thursday with a 50-43 season record.

Taj Bradley is on the bump as he starts for the Rays for the 19th time this season. He has pitched 97.2 innings this season and is 5-6 with a 4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 37 walks, and 84 strikeouts. In his most recent start, a road game against the Twins on Saturday, Bradley wasn’t involved in the decision. The Rays lost 6–5, and he pitched 5.2 innings, giving up three runs on six hits, one walk, and five strikeouts.

Bradley has pitched 17.2 innings in his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA, 1.075 WHIP, three walks, and 11 strikeouts. Bradley starts for the sixth time in his career against the Red Sox. In 28 innings against them, he is 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, six walks, and 37 strikeouts. Bradley has made three career starts at Fenway Park and is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, five walks, and 19 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched.

Boston thrashed the Rockies for the third consecutive day, winning their sixth straight and eighth in the last nine games. With a 49-45 record going into Thursday, the Red Sox are 5.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the top spot in the AL East.

In his 16th start of the season, Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Red Sox in the series opener. He has pitched 72 innings this season and is 6-6 with a 6.25 ERA, 1.583 WHIP, 32 walks, and 61 strikeouts. In his most recent start, a road victory over the Nationals on Saturday, Buehler earned the win. In a 10-3 Boston victory, he pitched five innings, giving up three runs (two earned) on eight hits while striking out two batters. Buehler has pitched 13 innings in his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 7.62 ERA, 2.077 WHIP, 10 walks, and 8 strikeouts.

This is Buehler's third start against the Rays in his career. In 12 innings pitched against them, he has a 2-0 record, a 3.75 ERA, a 1.083 WHIP, four walks, and ten strikeouts. In seven career starts at Fenway Park, Buehler is 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA, 1.145 WHIP, 13 walks, and 37 strikeouts over 36.2 innings.

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WALKER BUEHLER OVER 2.5 EARNED RUNS

Buehler’s season ERA is 6.25. Over his last 7 starts, he has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 5 of the 7. He just bleeds runs and that’s because his WHIP is 1.58. More baserunners, more runs. He had a decent outing last time out pitching 5 innings, giving up 2 ER and walking none. In 5 starts in June, Buehler walked 17 batters in 20.1 innings. Not surprisingly, Boston lost 4 of those 5 games. Buehler has gone Over 2.5 ER in 6 of his last 7 starts and 9 of his 15 starts this season.