Seahawks vs Patriots Free Pick, NFL Free Picks & Predictions Super Bowl LX
- J.A. Cavalier
- 16 hours ago
- 3 min read
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
Free Pick: 🏈J.A. Cavalier
(NEP) Henderson Over 17.5 Rush YDS
this line is way too low. He’s cleared it in 80% of his last 10 games. Yes, Seattle is elite against the run, ranking 1st in yards per carry allowed, but Henderson doesn’t need volume — he’s 15th in yards per carry and 8th in rushing EPA , meaning one explosive run can cash this instantly. At plus money, this offers great value. if he can’t get 18 yards, then the Patriots offense is basically a crime scene.
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Free Pick: 🏈 J.A. Cavalier
(NEP) Hollins over 24.5 Rec YDS
too cheap for a guy averaging 53 yards per game to close the season. His role has expanded and so has his production! So asking for 25 yards is basically asking him to show up. Seattle’s defense is strong, but they rank 23rd in receptions allowed, meaning they’ll give up short and intermediate completions while focusing on stopping the main weapons. Hollins ranks 27th in Receiving EPA, showing his targets are productive, If this doesn’t hit, the Patriots might as well punt on first down.
Free Pick: 🏈 Luke Shuey
(NEP) Hunter Henry o39.5 Rec Yards
You know the drill, we’re 2/2 on this system play in the playoffs cashing comfortably. The Seahawks stout defense can be beat by the TE. They are bottom 6 in the NFL against the TE while being a generational defense. Henry is a reliable veteran that dominates the TE workload for the Patriots. I know we’re not fading Drake “Drake Maye” Maye in his first Super Bowl but Seattle has the NFLs best run D in and is 2nd best against WRs. Maye has his work cut out for him to get the ball down field. The young star will lean on his TE early and often.
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Free Pick: Coach Rick Bowe
SEAHAWKS 1ST DRIVE PUNT AND/OR PATRIOTS 1ST DRIVE PUNT
These are two outstanding defenses and two offenses are built around the run. Both offenses will probably be a little more conservative early in this game. They will establish the run and will be okay playing the field position game early on. If you recall, we played this bet in the CFP national championship and won. We have similar circumstances here and that's why I like both teams to punt on their first drive. Over the last six Super Bowls, at least one team punted on their first drive. Last year, both teams punted at the end of their first drive and I like it to happen again.
Who Covers?
Seahwaks -4.5
Patriots +4.5
Whatever J.A, Bets!
Free Pick: 🏈 J.A. Cavalier
(SEA) Walker III O 98.5 Rush + Rec YDS
The Seahawks are averaging 123.29 rushing yards per game, which ranks 11th in the NFL, so the run game is already productive, but Walker’s real edge is that he doesn’t need perfect blocking — he creates yards on his own. New England is the type of defense that tries to eliminate your first option, so if they sell out and stack the box to slow the run, that’s fine, because Walker becomes the checkdown weapon and starts eating in the passing game. Seattle also ranks 1st in yards per reception, so even the “boring” dump-offs aren’t boring — they turn into 15 to 20-yard chunks. Walker gets touches no matter what, and one explosive run or one catch-and-run flips the entire prop. And in a high-leverage game, teams don’t get cute — they lean on the guy who can carry the offense. So I’ll take Walker over 98.5 total yards,
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