SUPER BOWL LIX
PHILADELPHIA vs. KANSAS CITY (KC -1.5, 48.5)
COACH RICK'S SUPER BOWL PICKS
It's finally here. The final game of the 2024 NFL season and if you watched Player Performance yesterday, you saw myself along with the rest of the Ylose crew giving our take on Super Bowl LIX. We have a ton of picks available and they are all free to our Ylose community. We appreciate all of you and we strive to give you the best picks, predictions, and analysis in this highly competitive industry. As JA Cavalier said on yesterday's show, there's only one you need to watch!
For the most part, we are all in line with how this game will turn out. We like some of the same picks, but I did make one that probably made a lot of you shake your head. I figured I would take a minute and explain it further and then provide you with the other Super Bowl LIX picks that I made.
So, here goes...
2H UNDER 24.5
Coach Rick, WTF? Yeah, I know. I'm well aware that the markets predict a high-scoring game with the total at 48.5. Historically, Super Bowls start slowly. Coaches want to feel each other out early on and then make adjustments which typically lead to higher scoring second halves. So why would I back the 2H Under?
Well, I always like to look at coaching matchups in big games. Guys that have been in a similar position a lot in their careers tend to have an advantage. Andy Reid has a leg up on Nick Sirianni who, by the way, Coach Rick coached against when he was a HS coach in New York and Sirianni was a player at Southwestern HS (look it up).
Going further though, I like the matchup between defensive coordinators - Steve Spagnuolo of Kansas City and Vic Fangio of the Eagles. Both of these guys are outstanding. Spagnuolo, especially, has been the master of second half adjustments. The Chiefs are well-known for shutting teams down in the second half (and the fourth quarter, which we'll address later).
Both defenses allow a hair over 9 points in the second half, a shade over 5 in the fourth quarter. I realize that both of these offenses could go off at any time, but I also know how these NFL DCs operate. They will work to take away what an offense does best and force the offense to beat it some other way. That usually doesn't work out and the 9 points in the second half is a good indicator. Plus, the 2H Under is 29-11 in Chiefs games over the last two seasons.
I'll throw this in as well. I've coached primarily at the HS level, but I also spent time as a college assistant. Some of the my coaching friends are in the NFL right now and I've had the opportunity to sit in various practices, meetings, etc. Now, I tell the athletes I coach that I don't know everything...but I do know a lot. I trust these defensive guys to get it done on Sunday night.
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ACH RICK'S OTHER SUPER BOWL
SAQUON BARKLEY ANYTIME TD
JALEN HURTS ANYTIME TD
KAREEM HUNT ANYTIME TD
These guys are all solid bets to reach the end zone on Sunday night. Barkley has the shortest odds followed by Hurts. Barkley has 20 rushing TDs and two more receiving and Hurts has 18 total rushing TDs, including 3 in the NFC championship win over Washington. Hunt is the go-to back for KC. He's got 9 total TDs, including two in the postseason.
DALLAS GOEDERT OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Goedert has become Hurts go-to option. The Eagles will want to establish the run and play action off the run often finds Goedert the primary receiver. He's been the guy in the playoffs with 85 and 56 in each of the past two games.
EAGLES +9/OVER 41 ALTERNATE LINE PARLAY
All credit to JA Cavalier here. You probably won't find this at -125 like he did, but this is absolute money. Anytime you have a spread below three, there is value on the underdog and it lends itself to a teaser. Eagles +9...absolutely. Each of the last three Super Bowls have been decided by 3 points and 41, that's THE key number when it comes to NFL totals. The books are telling us it's going to be a higher-scoring game.
CHIEFS (4Q) -0.5
Here's my second-half thing again. The Chiefs are notoriously strong in the second half. They haven't covered in the 3Q in the postseason, but they covered both 4Qs and they are 11-8 ATS for the season. The second half is all coaching and I lean toward the veteran Reid and his DC Spagnuolo.
JAKE ELLIOTT OVER 6.5 POINTS
OVER 3.5 FIELD GOALS
Here's where I see some great value. With these two defenses, I think we'll see several field goal attempts. Both of these offenses are just too good not to move the ball at times. But, both red zone defenses are very good...top 10 in the NFL. So, the result is more field goal attempts. Last year, there were 7 made field goals. In the Eagles/Chiefs SB LVII, 4 field goals were attempted but Harrison Butker missed one. Elliott has gone Over this number in 7 straight games. He's got 27 points in the playoffs.
Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the game!
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.