Thunder vs Warriors Free Pick, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/29/25

OKLAHOMA CITY @ GOLDEN STATE (OKC -10.5, 228.5)

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Thunder vs Warriors Free Pick, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/29/25

THUNDER @ WARRIORS 1/29/25

As we gear up for more mid-week NBA action on Wednesday night, all eyes are on Western Conference heavyweights - the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Golden State Warriors. The two will play at the Chase Center in San Francisco, CA. Which team will win the deciding game of this three-game season series?

Oklahoma City has seen a slight dip in its performance after losing two of its last nine matches. Both losses came against the Dallas Mavericks by scores of 106-98 and 121-115 respectively. Yet, the Thunder were quick to turn the tide, registering a 118-108 away victory over the Portland Trail Blazers last Sunday. They managed to restrict the Blazers to a 40.7% field goal percentage but fell short of the 13.5-point spread. The team landed 47.2% of its field goals, including 10 out of 30 from behind the three-point line. At one point, OKC led by a whopping 19 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams were instrumental in the game, scoring 35 and 24 points respectively.

Despite the minor setbacks, OKC is currently leading the Western Conference, a full six games ahead of the Houston Rockets. With a remarkable adjusted defensive efficiency of 104.8 points per 100 possessions and ranking sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.1, the Thunder are not showing signs of slowing down, despite missing Chet Holmgren who is recovering from a hip injury.

Meanwhile, the Warriors, with a record of 22-23, are trying to get back on their feet after a 118-108 loss against the Los Angeles Lakers. Unable to counter Anthony Davis's 36-point game, the Warriors primarily relied on Andrew Wiggins who scored 20 points and secured six rebounds.

Stephen Curry, usually a reliable asset, had a disappointing night against the Lakers, making only 4 of his 17 attempted field goals. Lacking the support of Jonathan Kuminga and Draymond Green, the Warriors currently hold the No. 11 seed in the West, scoring 112.2 points per 100 possessions and allowing 112.4 points in return.

The Warriors will play tonight without Curry, Green, and Kuminga. That’s essentially the meat of the Warriors scoring. Without them against a team like OKC, Golden State could be in trouble. While the Warriors have been strong from beyond the arc (currently third in the league in 3-point rate), the Thunder reign supreme in terms of opposing 3-point percentage (32.7%). The Thunder also allow just  12.6 triples per 100 possessions.

OKC has won 7 of its last 9 games, but the Thunder have only covered once in their last five games. Golden State has just three wins in its last eight games. The Warriors are 1-4 SU in their last five games. They have only covered twice in the last five games and three times in the last eight.

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COACH RICK FREE PICK:

OVER 228.5

When these two play, expect points. That has been the case over the last 10 meetings. These two have averaged more than 252 points per  game over the last ten. OKC ranks No. 9 in scoring offense (115.8 ppg). They’re also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA - actually No. 1 in scoring allowing 104.8 ppg - but still the Over has cashed in 9 of their last 10 games. It’s been a similar story for Golden State which has seen the Over cash in five of its last six games. Historically, as mentioned, these two put up a ton of points and the Over has cashed in 9 of the last 10. The last game they played against each other was on Nov. 27. That game featured just 206 points with the total set at 224.5. Tonight’s total is much higher, indicating another high-scoing matchup.