Timberwolves vs Rockets Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/16/25

J.A. Cavalier
1 day ago
2 min read

“Vegas hung 222 and a half on this game like it’s a track meet — meanwhile both teams are showing up with hard hats, mouth guards, and zero interest in running.”

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Timberwolves vs Rockets Free Pick

Let’s talk Timberwolves at Rockets, Total UNDER 222.5, and why this number looks like a gift that Vegas wishes it could take back — from a professional sharp’s perspective. First off, both of these teams are built like accountants in a rock band: serious defenders, slow tempo, and absolutely zero interest in scoring a hundred and fifty points. The Rockets are one of the stingiest defenses in the league this season — they’re giving up just 110.8 points per 100 possessions, firmly inside the top handful of defenses — and they’re crushing the boards, leading the NBA in total rebounds per game with nearly 49.4 a night — that’s not hustle, that’s hostile takeover. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense, with a Defensive Rating right around 113.5, sits in the upper tier of the league as well — enough to make Steph Curry reconsider his life choices. Neither club plays fast — the Rockets regularly rank in the bottom of the league in pace — and the Timberwolves aren’t exactly the Wizards with the gas pedal down either — so you’ve got two houses built out of defense, rebounding and half-court execution, not pace and space fireworks. With both squads limiting transition points, controlling boards, and forcing tough shot after tough shot, the under isn’t just smart — it’s the sharp guy’s version of laughing all the way to the bank. If you want fireworks, go watch a fireworks show — in this one, you’re betting on a chess match with bruises, not a dunk contest.

My pick is simple — Under 222.5. Two elite defenses, slow tempo, and zero easy buckets. I’m riding with the math.