Warriors vs Timberwolves Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/26/25

J.A. Cavalier
Jan 26
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Warriors vs Timberwolves Free Pick

The Golden State Warriors head to the Target Center tonight for a Western Conference rematch against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and this one comes loaded with urgency on the home side. Minnesota enters at 27–19 in a classic revenge-and-desperation spot after being embarrassed 111–85 by these same Warriors just one night ago. With playoff positioning at stake and pride on the line, the Timberwolves are expected to respond with a far different level of intensity.

Golden State arrives at 25–21 riding improved form, showing offensive rhythm despite missing key pieces. Their ability to generate scoring through movement, spacing, and timely shot-making was on full display in the previous meeting, exposing breakdowns in Minnesota’s execution rather than flaws in its overall structure.

The analytical focus for this matchup centers on Minnesota’s defensive identity. The Timberwolves have built their season on elite defensive organization, physicality, and discipline, traits that were conspicuously absent in the loss. The question tonight is whether they can reassert that identity and force Golden State into tougher, halfcourt possessions.

With familiarity, adjustments, and motivation all in play, this rematch sets up as a far more competitive and physical contest. Minnesota’s response on the defensive end will likely dictate whether this game tightens into a grind or if Golden State continues to dictate terms with confidence and control.

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FREE PICK Under 232.5

Tthis is where sharps live and the public gets uncomfortable. Yes, there are stars on the floor, but both of these teams are top 10 in defensive efficiency, and this rematch is all about correction, not fireworks. Minnesota just got embarrassed, and their entire defensive identity is built on slowing games down—they force teams into nearly 80% halfcourt possessions, long, physical, grind-it-out trips where nothing comes easy. On the other side, Golden State isn’t just a shooting team, they’re an elite defensive unit too—sixth in Defensive Rating and number one in the NBA at defending the three, which cuts off the Warriors’ usual ‘splashy’ reputation argument. Add in the familiarity from playing literally last night, coaches making adjustments, rotations tightening up, and suddenly this turns into a chess match instead of a track meet. Public sees yesterday’s score and expects a sequel; sharps know the second game almost always swings toward defense. This one’s got way more film study than highlights—and when both teams take away what you do best, the Under is the only grown-up bet in the room