Bucks vs Celtics Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 2/1/25

J.A. Cavalier
2 days ago
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Bucks vs Celtics Free Pick

The Milwaukee Bucks head to TD Garden tonight for a pivotal Eastern Conference matchup against the Boston Celtics, and the form of these two teams could not be more different. Boston enters at 30–18 playing some of its best basketball of the season, having won 22 of its last 32 games and solidifying its position near the top of the conference.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, arrives at 18–28 searching for answers. The Bucks are riding a four-game losing streak and have dropped eight of their last ten, struggling to find consistency on both ends of the floor. Those recent struggles have placed added pressure on a roster already dealing with confidence and execution issues, particularly in road environments.

From a situational standpoint, this matchup heavily favors the home team. Boston has been reliable at TD Garden, leveraging defensive discipline, efficient shot selection, and depth to steadily wear down opponents. Against a Bucks team trending in the opposite direction, the Celtics are positioned to control tempo and dictate terms early.

With momentum, venue, and recent performance all pointing one way, this game shapes up as a key opportunity for Boston to continue its strong run, while Milwaukee faces a difficult test in a building where mistakes are rarely forgiven.

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FREE PICK Over 216.5

this is one of those spots where people overreact to Giannis being out and miss the real scoring drivers. Milwaukee’s offense dips without him, sure—but what doesn’t dip is three-point volume. The Bucks are top seven in threes made, and over their last ten they’re actually shooting 37% from deep, so the looks are clean and the confidence is real. Now here’s where Boston comes in: their defensive scheme is built to protect the rim, which means they’re willing to give up non-corner threes—and Milwaukee ranks top 12 in non-corner three frequency. Flip it around, and it gets uglier. The Bucks’ defense is leaking oil—24th in Defensive Rating, 28th in halfcourt defense, and they’re getting torched from the corners, allowing over 40%, which just so happens to be Boston’s favorite shot. The Celtics lead the league in corner three accuracy, and at home they will absolutely hunt that matchup. Both teams are rested, Boston will push pace, and Milwaukee’s transition defense ranks near the bottom. Public sees ‘Bucks struggling’ and thinks Under; sharps see shot volume, matchup threes, and a total that’s too low.